2689.HK
Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited

Basic Materials · Paper & Paper Products · valued as of 2026-11-03 · statements 2024-06-30

Average Intrinsic Value

7.00B USD

Market Cap

3.20B USD

Margin of Safety

54.4%

Intrinsic / Market Ratio

2.19×

Projections, not exact values. Intrinsic Values are projected from each company's past reports. They show which stocks look cheap compared with the others, not exactly what a stock is worth.

How Each Value Is Built

The screener's three formulas on the reported figures. Each card reads the same way: the value as a sum of numbered terms, each term's calculation opened under it, from the reported figures to the value. The list ranks companies by their plain average over the market cap.

EPV + Growth

5.99B USD

what the normal year's earnings are worth for ever, plus growth that pays

Profit

7.51B USD

15 years of cash the shareholders can take out, and the equity left at year 15

FCFF

7.51B USD

15 years of cash for shareholders and lenders, less what is owed

Intrinsic Value

7.00B USD

the plain average of the three, uncapped, as the screener averages them

Intrinsic Value

7.00B USD

from the sum above

Market Cap

3.20B USD

the price on the date above times the shares

Intrinsic Value ÷ Market Cap

2.19×

the ratio the screener ranks by; Margin of Safety +54.4% (1 − Market Cap ÷ Intrinsic Value)

Each card below builds one of the three values from the reported years.

Earnings power value plus growth: 5.99B USD
What the normal year's operating profit after tax is worth if it lasts for ever, plus what the new investment adds beyond its cost, less the net debt that comes before the shareholders (or plus the net cash).
①EPV (earnings power value)9.39B USD
−②Net Debt Today9.86B USD
+③Growth Value6.46B USD
=Value5.99B USD

EPV of the Operations (NOPAT over WACC)

9.39B USD

Net debt today

-9.86B USD

Growth Value

+6.46B USD

Value

5.99B USD

①EPV (earnings power value)

9.39B USD

②Net Debt Today

9.86B USD

③Growth Value

6.46B USD

Market value

Market Cap3.20B USD

The price on the date above times the shares.

Value vs market

Margin of Safety+46.6%

1 minus the market cap as a share of the value.

Profit value: today's value of the shareholders' equity, from the cash it can pay them (FCFE): 7.51B USD
Fifteen years of free cash flow to equity (FCFE), each brought to today at the cost of equity, plus the equity at year 15 brought to today.

The projection was not made (a profit at or below zero in the latest three years), so the value is the book value today, 7.51B USD, as the screener leaves it.

①Present Value of the 15 Years of FCFE

Not in the value

②Equity at Year 15, Today

Not in the value

Market value

Market Cap3.20B USD

The price on the date above times the shares.

Value vs market

Margin of Safety+57.5%

1 minus the market cap as a share of the value.

FCFF value: today's value of the shareholders' equity, from the cash the firm can pay its shareholders and lenders (FCFF): 7.51B USD
Fifteen years of free cash flow to the firm (FCFF), each brought to today at the WACC, plus the invested capital at year 15 brought to today, less the net debt today (or plus the net cash).

The projection was not made (a change in working capital above half the operating profit in the latest three years), so the value is the book value today, 7.51B USD, as the screener leaves it.

①Present Value of the 15 Years of FCFF

Not in the value

②Invested Capital at Year 15, Today

Not in the value

③Net Debt Today

Not in the value

Market value

Market Cap3.20B USD

The price on the date above times the shares.

Value vs market

Margin of Safety+57.5%

1 minus the market cap as a share of the value.

The Rates and the Capital the Values Read

The WACC and the cost of equity each value is discounted at, the book value and the net debt each starts from, and the seven quality metrics, from the same run.

WACC: 3.70%
Cost of Equity =Risk-Free Rate 4.50%+Beta 1.25×Market Risk Premium 6.00%= 12.01%

The yearly return the shareholders require for the risk they carry; it is the rate that brings their future cash to today.

Tax Rate for WACC =Tax Provision 61.22M USDPretax Income 170.58M USD= 35.89%

The tax the interest saves.

Interest Expense =EBIT 377.56M USD−Pretax Income 170.58M USD= 206.98M USD

The interest the company paid: EBIT is the profit before tax plus the interest.

Cost of Debt =Interest Expense 206.98M USDTotal Debt 10.75B USD×(1 − Tax Rate for WACC 35.89%)= 1.23%

What the lenders are paid a year after the tax the interest saves.

Debt Weight =Total Debt 10.75B USDMarket Cap + Total Debt 3.20B USD + 10.75B USD= 77.09%

The part of the capital the lenders put in, at market value.

WACC =Equity Weight 22.91%×Cost of Equity 12.01%+Debt Weight 77.09%×Cost of Debt 1.23%= 3.70%

Weighted average cost of capital: the yearly return the shareholders and the lenders together require, weighted by what each puts in; the rate that brings the firm's future cash to today.

Book value and net debt today
Both from the balance sheet of the newest quarter, 2025-12-31.

Total Assets 21.30B USD − Total Liabilities 13.79B USD = Book Value Today 7.51B USD

Total Debt 10.75B USD − Cash and Short-Term Investments 890.31M USD = Net Debt Today 9.86B USD

The book value is what Profit starts from and what stands when a projection is not made; the book value plus the net debt is what FCFF starts from; the net debt comes off Greenwald's and FCFF's values before the shareholders.

Quality metrics
Read beside the value, never a condition for it: every company is valued, and a filter in the list is the reader's choice.
MetricFrom
Share dilutionShares Today ÷ Shares Two Years Back − 10.0%at most 5%passes4,692,220,811 / 4,692,220,811
Accrual quality(Operating Cash Flow − Net Income) ÷ Total Assets-1.0%at least -10.0%passes(-109.39M USD − 103.40M USD) ÷ 21.30B USD
Price to bookMarket Cap ÷ Book Value Today0.43×at most 3×passes3.20B USD ÷ 7.51B USD
Operating marginOperating Income ÷ Revenue4.5%above 10.0%does not pass367.34M USD ÷ 8.20B USD
Revenue growthRevenue ÷ Revenue a Year Before − 14.6%above 10.0%does not pass8.20B USD / 7.83B USD
Net cash(Cash − Total Debt) ÷ Market Cap-308.9%above -30%does not pass(879.56M USD − 10.75B USD) ÷ 3.20B USD
Operating efficiencyOperating Income ÷ Gross Profit46.7%above 25.0%passes367.34M USD ÷ 786.71M USD

Market Data

The provider's ratios and the analysts' consensus beside the argument; none of them enters a value.

Share price

5.34 HKD

Enterprise value

96.66B HKD

the provider's own figure

EV / EBITDA

9.48×

Price / book

0.42×

the provider's book

Price / earnings

6.28×

Return on equity

8.0%

the provider's figure, not this page's

Profit margin

5.3%

Revenue growth

26.9%

Analyst target, mean

9.16 HKD

Analysts

9

opinions in the consensus

Financial Statements

The annual lines the screener holds, year by year, in USD at each period's rate; the figures this valuation read are in its calculation above.

USD20212022202320242025
Income statement

Revenue

—9.64B7.83B8.20B—

Gross profit

—1.04B211.22M786.71M—

Operating income

—532.18M-250.31M367.34M—

EBITDA

operating income before depreciation and amortisation

—1.07B300.10M850.56M—

Pretax income

—503.95M-376.29M170.58M—

Net income

—489.36M-328.99M103.40M—

Normalized income

net income without one-off items, as the data provider prints it; Profit's line when printed

—495.35M-325.61M112.49M—

R&D

—————
Balance sheet, year end

Total assets

14.28B16.00B16.65B19.06B—

Total liabilities

7.09B8.90B10.42B12.38B—

Shareholders' equity

the equity the parent's shareholders own, as printed, without minority interest; the book value the values read is total assets less total liabilities, in Book Value and Net Debt above

7.11B7.03B6.16B6.61B—

Total debt

5.29B6.61B7.84B9.51B—

Cash and equivalents

1.55B1.44B1.42B1.45B—

Net PP&E

fixed assets after depreciation

9.33B10.56B11.95B13.45B—

Working capital

current assets less current liabilities

741.38M2.16B190.97M703.01M—
Cash flow

Operating cash flow

389.79M452.78M955.82M-109.39M—

Capital expenditure

paid out, so below zero

-938.60M-1.89B-2.44B-1.77B—

Depreciation and amortisation

425.91M450.31M522.24M473.00M—

Free cash flow

operating cash flow plus capital expenditure

-548.80M-1.43B-1.49B-1.88B—