Backtest

Strategy validation, one vintage at a time. Pick the year and you get the Top N undervalued stocks the screener would have chosen on that fiscal year, bought 75 days later and held for a year. Undervalued means the highest intrinsic value / market cap, where intrinsic value is the plain average of three values:

  • EPV + Growth: earnings power value plus growth value, less net debt.
  • Profit: 15 years of profit paid to shareholders, plus the book value and the profit kept by year 15.
  • FCFF: 15 years of free cash flow, plus the capital invested by year 15 (book value, net debt and everything reinvested), less net debt.

Profit and FCFF grow at the rate the company's own reinvestment pays for, falling to 2% by year 10. Nothing is capped.

The 75 days are the SEC accelerated-filer deadline, the real delay between fiscal close and the 10-K. The year is counted from each company's own buy, because fiscal year ends run from January to December and a single sell date would give holds differing by up to eleven months. The newest vintage has not had its full year yet, so check the holding figure below before comparing it to an older one.

4,781 backtestsAvg holding: 1.00 yrs
Strategy notes: how filters interact
Click to expand. Quality filters, Tech mode logic, FCFF + profit projection guidance.
Filters
Market, year, strategy mode, sector, industry and market cap at purchase. Quality filters live in the panel below. Checkboxes are the source of truth.
to
Filters are off by default: on the current valuation no combination beat the unfiltered ranking by a margin that held across every sample. Switching mode does NOT auto-change these filters.
Mode details: All sectors
4,781 backtests match the current filter combination.
Sectors: All 11 sectors, no filter
Active quality filters: none
Portfolio Performance (Top N)
Average annualized return and win rate per Top N portfolio.
Portfolio SizeAvg Annualized ReturnWin RateWinners / Losers
Top 10+30.7%70.0%7 / 3
Top 15+28.7%66.7%10 / 5
Top 20+26.0%70.0%14 / 6
Top 25+27.0%68.0%17 / 8
Top 30+27.0%73.3%22 / 8
Top 50+25.4%68.0%34 / 16
Top 75+25.4%62.7%47 / 28
Top 100+21.3%63.0%63 / 37
Key Insights
Best/worst sectors + most consistent + 100% win rate sectors.
Best Sector
Energy
Avg Annual: +40.5% · Win Rate: 82.4% · 250 stocks
Worst Sector
Consumer Cyclical
Avg Annual: +3.0% · Win Rate: 45.8% · 590 stocks
Most Consistent (lowest std dev)
Real Estate
Std Dev: 26.52% · Avg Annual: +5.4%
Sector Breakdown
Per-sector aggregation. Standard deviation is blank for a sector holding one company, because a single value has no spread.
SectorStocksAvg AnnualBestWorstStd DevAvg HoldWin RateW / L
Energy250+40.5%+248.0%-56.1%51.13%1.00 yrs82.4%206 / 44
Basic Materials377+37.5%+347.4%-69.4%70.24%1.00 yrs62.6%236 / 141
Industrials920+24.3%+539.4%-100.0%59.74%1.00 yrs64.0%589 / 331
Utilities205+20.6%+327.5%-56.3%40.28%1.00 yrs77.6%159 / 46
Technology565+17.3%+730.6%-99.9%75.37%1.00 yrs49.2%278 / 287
Financial Services656+14.0%+624.9%-77.6%45.43%1.00 yrs66.5%436 / 220
Communication Services257+12.0%+361.4%-77.3%49.62%1.00 yrs55.6%143 / 114
Healthcare493+9.7%+379.4%-85.9%48.64%1.00 yrs53.8%265 / 228
Consumer Defensive332+5.5%+377.9%-72.5%40.98%1.00 yrs49.1%163 / 169
Real Estate127+5.4%+107.7%-58.8%26.52%1.00 yrs54.3%69 / 58
Consumer Cyclical590+3.0%+183.3%-87.0%36.28%1.00 yrs45.8%270 / 320
Industry Breakdown (Top 20)
Per-industry aggregation, finer-grained than sector.
IndustryStocksAvg AnnualBestWorstAvg HoldWin RateW / L
Other Precious Metals & Mining13+134.8%+267.1%-27.3%1.00 yrs92.3%12 / 1
Gold51+130.2%+347.4%+0.0%1.00 yrs98.0%50 / 1
Silver3+127.1%+201.4%+76.1%1.00 yrs100.0%3 / 0
Uranium9+106.3%+180.9%-17.4%1.00 yrs77.8%7 / 2
Communication Equipment27+88.3%+730.6%-36.6%1.00 yrs63.0%17 / 10
Copper16+86.7%+190.3%-13.2%1.00 yrs93.8%15 / 1
Aluminum12+82.7%+173.1%+5.7%0.99 yrs100.0%12 / 0
Electrical Equipment & Parts44+81.2%+539.4%-48.7%1.00 yrs72.7%32 / 12
Oil & Gas Drilling8+69.1%+137.0%-10.9%1.00 yrs87.5%7 / 1
Aerospace & Defense78+59.0%+275.0%-74.3%1.00 yrs88.5%69 / 9
Semiconductors59+55.7%+504.1%-56.2%1.00 yrs72.9%43 / 16
Thermal Coal17+53.3%+243.1%-46.5%1.00 yrs88.2%15 / 2
Semiconductor Equipment & Materials40+49.3%+245.9%-58.7%1.00 yrs67.5%27 / 13
Other Industrial Metals & Mining38+46.1%+194.1%-31.8%1.00 yrs73.7%28 / 10
Engineering & Construction109+44.5%+387.0%-39.9%1.00 yrs78.0%85 / 24
Capital Markets71+44.4%+624.9%-51.9%1.00 yrs66.2%47 / 24
Electronic Components53+43.8%+338.3%-49.8%1.00 yrs56.6%30 / 23
Oil & Gas Equipment & Services39+42.7%+247.4%-33.3%1.00 yrs76.9%30 / 9
Metal Fabrication16+41.4%+188.1%-48.1%1.00 yrs75.0%12 / 4
Oil & Gas Integrated26+38.8%+94.8%-17.9%1.00 yrs96.2%25 / 1
Top 3 Stocks Per Sector
Individual best performers grouped by sector.

0JKF.LJackson Financial Inc.+403.1% annual+400.3% total1.00 yrs
0K8D.LNokia Oyj+61.9% annual+61.6% total1.00 yrs
0A2B.LBanco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A.+44.5% annual+44.4% total1.00 yrs

Basic Materials

3330.HKLingbao Gold Group Company Ltd.+347.4% annual+345.2% total1.00 yrs
A531.FAura Minerals Inc.+319.3% annual+317.2% total1.00 yrs
3939.HKWanguo Gold Group Limited+315.5% annual+313.5% total1.00 yrs

Communication Services

NBISNebius Group N.V.+361.4% annual+359.0% total1.00 yrs
ECHOEchoStar Corporation+336.9% annual+334.7% total1.00 yrs
GSATGlobalstar, Inc.+173.2% annual+172.2% total1.00 yrs

Consumer Cyclical

MDV.WAModivo S.A.+183.3% annual+183.1% total1.00 yrs
GMEGameStop Corp.+165.6% annual+165.4% total1.00 yrs
005380.KSHyundai Motor Company+155.1% annual+154.3% total1.00 yrs

Consumer Defensive

278470.KSAPR Co., Ltd.+377.9% annual+375.4% total1.00 yrs
KTD.FEast Buy Holding Limited+217.5% annual+217.2% total1.00 yrs
2419.HKDekon Food and Agriculture Group+157.6% annual+156.8% total1.00 yrs

Energy

267250.KSHD Hyundai Co., Ltd.+248.0% annual+246.5% total1.00 yrs
6269.TMODEC, Inc.+247.4% annual+245.9% total1.00 yrs
DSX.FPT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk+243.1% annual+241.6% total1.00 yrs

Financial Services

006800.KSMirae Asset Securities Co., Ltd.+624.9% annual+620.0% total1.00 yrs
WULFTeraWulf Inc.+406.2% annual+403.4% total1.00 yrs
IRENIREN Limited+351.5% annual+349.2% total1.00 yrs

Healthcare

9995.HKRemeGen Co., Ltd.+379.4% annual+376.8% total1.00 yrs
ARWRArrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc.+217.6% annual+213.3% total0.99 yrs
INDVIndivior Pharmaceuticals, Inc.+211.2% annual+210.0% total1.00 yrs

Industrials

BEBloom Energy Corporation+539.4% annual+535.3% total1.00 yrs
HP6H.FHarbin Electric Company Limited+466.4% annual+463.0% total1.00 yrs
298040.KSHyosung Heavy Industries Corporation+432.9% annual+429.9% total1.00 yrs

Real Estate

IHSIHS Holding Limited+107.7% annual+107.2% total1.00 yrs
CDE.FCity Developments Limited+68.9% annual+68.6% total1.00 yrs
U1O.FUOL Group Limited+67.0% annual+66.7% total1.00 yrs

Technology

6869.HKYangtze Optical Fibre And Cable Joint Stock Limited Company+730.6% annual+724.6% total1.00 yrs
402340.KSSK Square Co., Ltd.+504.1% annual+500.4% total1.00 yrs
CIFRCipher Digital Inc.+387.9% annual+385.3% total1.00 yrs

Utilities

ENLTEnlight Renewable Energy Ltd+327.5% annual+325.4% total1.00 yrs
TGN.ROS.N.T.G.N. Transgaz S.A.+230.0% annual+228.7% total1.00 yrs
AOR.FSolaria Energía y Medio Ambiente, S.A.+184.3% annual+183.2% total1.00 yrs
Top 50 Picks (Detailed)
Top 50 individual results (out of 4,781 total backtests in current filter). Buy/sell prices + return per stock.
#TickerNameExchange CountryOrigin CountrySectorIndustryBuy Date / PxSell Date / PxDaysTotal ReturnAnnualizedRatio at Pick
16666.HKEvergrande Property Services Group LimitedHKCNReal EstateReal Estate Services2025-03-17
0.80 HKD
2026-03-16
1.11 HKD
364+38.8%+38.9%27.62T
2DOL.TODollarama Inc.CACAConsumer DefensiveDiscount Stores2024-04-15
112.70 CAD
2025-04-15
168.54 CAD
365+49.5%+49.6%13.90M
3GDDYGoDaddy Inc.USUSTechnologySoftware - Infrastructure2025-03-17
180.30 USD
2026-03-16
82.18 USD
364-54.4%-54.5%21.45K
4SPG.FSpringer Nature AG & Co. KGaADEDECommunication ServicesPublishing2025-03-17
23.28 EUR
2026-03-16
15.28 EUR
364-34.4%-34.5%3.35K
51364.HKGuming Holdings LimitedHKCNConsumer CyclicalRestaurants2025-03-17
15.54 HKD
2026-03-16
28.49 HKD
364+83.4%+83.8%284.95
6LIILennox International Inc.USUSIndustrialsBuilding Products & Equipment2025-03-17
589.75 USD
2026-03-16
479.34 USD
364-18.7%-18.8%125.88
7MSIMotorola Solutions, Inc.USUSTechnologyCommunication Equipment2025-03-17
422.01 USD
2026-03-16
471.26 USD
364+11.7%+11.7%101.23
8LEUCentrus Energy Corp.USUSEnergyUranium2025-03-17
76.13 USD
2026-03-16
213.05 USD
364+179.9%+180.9%96.15
9NVAL.FPTT Exploration and Production Public Company LimitedDETHEnergyOil & Gas E&P2025-03-17
2.96 EUR
2026-03-16
3.96 EUR
364+33.8%+33.9%84.07
108848.TLeopalace21 CorporationJPJPReal EstateReal Estate Services2024-06-14
529.53 JPY
2025-06-13
614.61 JPY
364+16.1%+16.1%62.75
11BMABanco Macro S.A.USARFinancial ServicesBanks - Regional2025-03-17
83.18 USD
2026-03-16
65.72 USD
364-21.0%-21.1%54.64
12NBS.LNationwide Building SocietyGBGBFinancial ServicesBanks - Regional2024-06-14
129.63 GBP
2025-06-13
130.63 GBP
364+0.8%+0.8%32.17
13APAAPA CorporationUSUSEnergyOil & Gas E&P2025-03-17
20.05 USD
2026-03-16
34.57 USD
364+72.4%+72.8%20.64
14PET.TOPet Valu Holdings Ltd.CACAConsumer CyclicalSpecialty Retail2025-03-17
24.47 CAD
2026-03-16
22.76 CAD
364-7.0%-7.0%20.06
15PME.AXPro Medicus LimitedAUAUHealthcareHealth Information Services2024-09-13
167.79 AUD
2025-09-12
298.75 AUD
364+78.1%+78.4%19.40
16VGVenture Global, Inc.USUSEnergyOil & Gas Midstream2025-03-17
11.30 USD
2026-03-16
12.29 USD
364+8.8%+8.8%16.99
17IAG.LInternational Consolidated Airlines Group S.A.GBGBIndustrialsAirlines2025-03-17
289.29 GBp
2026-03-16
352.75 GBp
364+21.9%+22.0%16.60
181216.HKZhongyuan Bank Co., Ltd.HKCNFinancial ServicesBanks - Regional2025-03-17
0.32 HKD
2026-03-16
0.34 HKD
364+6.3%+6.3%15.52
19CORCencora, Inc.USUSHealthcareMedical Distribution2024-12-16
230.05 USD
2025-12-12
346.35 USD
361+50.6%+51.3%13.92
201186.HKChina Railway Construction Corporation LimitedHKCNIndustrialsEngineering & Construction2025-03-17
5.47 HKD
2026-03-16
5.46 HKD
364-0.2%-0.2%13.09
21BBARBanco BBVA Argentina S.A.USARFinancial ServicesBanks - Regional2025-03-17
18.44 USD
2026-03-16
12.88 USD
364-30.1%-30.2%12.90
229668.HKChina Bohai Bank Co., Ltd.HKCNFinancial ServicesBanks - Regional2025-03-17
0.88 HKD
2026-03-16
0.87 HKD
364-1.1%-1.1%12.52
230267.HKCITIC LimitedHKHKIndustrialsConglomerates2025-03-17
9.53 HKD
2026-03-16
11.47 HKD
364+20.4%+20.5%12.00
24000880.KSHanwha CorporationKRKRIndustrialsConglomerates2025-03-17
62070.07 KRW
2026-03-16
163711.45 KRW
364+163.8%+164.6%11.79
252009.HKBBMG CorporationHKCNBasic MaterialsBuilding Materials2025-03-17
0.79 HKD
2026-03-16
0.81 HKD
364+2.5%+2.5%11.63
263BZ.FBank of Zhengzhou Co., Ltd.DECNFinancial ServicesBanks - Regional2025-03-17
0.11 EUR
2026-03-16
0.11 EUR
364+1.8%+1.8%11.63
27B95.FBank of Tianjin Co., Ltd.DECNFinancial ServicesBanks - Regional2025-03-17
0.20 EUR
2026-03-16
0.24 EUR
364+18.8%+18.9%11.56
28BFHBread Financial Holdings, Inc.USUSFinancial ServicesCredit Services2025-03-17
48.01 USD
2026-03-16
69.99 USD
364+45.8%+46.0%11.23
293698.HKHuishang Bank Corporation LimitedHKCNFinancial ServicesBanks - Regional2025-03-17
2.64 HKD
2026-03-16
4.26 HKD
364+61.4%+61.6%10.38
305UM.FGenertec Universal Medical Group Company LimitedDECNFinancial ServicesCredit Services2025-03-17
0.60 EUR
2026-03-16
0.64 EUR
364+6.7%+6.7%10.24
31ZIMZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd.USILIndustrialsMarine Shipping2025-03-17
18.45 USD
2026-03-16
26.75 USD
364+45.0%+45.2%10.03
323360.HKFar East Horizon LimitedHKHKFinancial ServicesCredit Services2025-03-17
6.44 HKD
2026-03-16
7.08 HKD
364+10.0%+10.0%9.78
339911.HKNewborn Town Inc.HKHKTechnologySoftware - Application2025-03-17
5.71 HKD
2026-03-16
10.06 HKD
364+76.3%+76.7%9.26
34ADS0.Fadidas AGDEDEConsumer CyclicalFootwear & Accessories2025-03-25
5.72 EUR
2026-03-16
3.80 EUR
356-33.5%-34.2%8.95
35139130.KSiM Financial Group Co., Ltd.KRKRFinancial ServicesBanks - Regional2025-03-17
9149.14 KRW
2026-03-16
16526.51 KRW
364+80.6%+81.0%8.92
360390.HKChina Railway Group LimitedHKCNIndustrialsEngineering & Construction2025-03-17
4.03 HKD
2026-03-16
4.53 HKD
364+12.4%+12.5%8.78
37034730.KSSK Inc.KRKRIndustrialsConglomerates2025-03-17
138338.20 KRW
2026-03-16
330830.50 KRW
364+139.1%+139.9%8.32
382B5.FBAIC Motor Corporation LimitedDECNConsumer CyclicalAuto Manufacturers2025-03-17
0.30 EUR
2026-03-16
0.17 EUR
364-41.1%-41.2%8.00
396623.HKLufax Holding LtdHKCNFinancial ServicesCredit Services2025-03-17
10.91 HKD
2026-03-16
10.91 HKD
364+0.0%N/A7.80
400010.HKHang Lung Group LimitedHKHKReal EstateReal Estate Services2025-03-17
11.25 HKD
2026-03-16
15.67 HKD
364+39.2%+39.4%7.75
41078930.KSGS Holdings Corp.KRKRIndustrialsConglomerates2025-03-17
37187.15 KRW
2026-03-16
62362.30 KRW
364+67.7%+68.0%7.72
420017.HKNew World Development Company LimitedHKHKReal EstateReal Estate - Diversified2024-09-13
6.44 HKD
2025-09-12
8.58 HKD
364+33.3%+33.4%7.70
431PC.FLegend Holdings CorporationDECNTechnologyComputer Hardware2025-03-17
1.00 EUR
2026-03-16
0.94 EUR
364-6.5%-6.5%7.61
44462870.KSSHIFT UPKRKRCommunication ServicesElectronic Gaming & Multimedia2025-03-17
59559.50 KRW
2026-03-16
30030.00 KRW
364-49.6%-49.7%7.33
451988.HKChina Minsheng Banking Corp., Ltd.HKCNFinancial ServicesBanks - Regional2025-03-17
3.91 HKD
2026-03-16
3.91 HKD
364+0.0%N/A7.32
46FLRFluor CorporationUSUSIndustrialsEngineering & Construction2025-03-17
37.39 USD
2026-03-16
43.87 USD
364+17.3%+17.4%7.28
478425.TMizuho Leasing Company, LimitedJPJPFinancial ServicesCredit Services2024-06-14
1109.11 JPY
2025-06-13
1062.06 JPY
364-4.2%-4.3%7.14
486MT.FMetallurgical Corporation of China Ltd.DECNIndustrialsEngineering & Construction2025-03-17
0.19 EUR
2026-03-16
0.19 EUR
364+0.0%N/A7.06
492016.HKChina Zheshang Bank Co., LtdHKCNFinancial ServicesBanks - Regional2025-03-17
2.46 HKD
2026-03-16
2.62 HKD
364+6.5%+6.5%7.01
50138930.KSBNK Financial Group Inc.KRKRFinancial ServicesBanks - Regional2025-03-17
11011.00 KRW
2026-03-16
18158.14 KRW
364+64.9%+65.2%6.84