Backtest
Strategy validation, one vintage at a time. Pick the year and you get the Top N undervalued stocks the screener would have chosen on that fiscal year, bought 75 days later and held for a year. Undervalued means the highest intrinsic value / market cap, where intrinsic value is the plain average of three values:
- EPV + Growth: earnings power value plus growth value, less net debt.
- Profit: 15 years of profit paid to shareholders, plus the book value and the profit kept by year 15.
- FCFF: 15 years of free cash flow, plus the capital invested by year 15 (book value, net debt and everything reinvested), less net debt.
Profit and FCFF grow at the rate the company's own reinvestment pays for, falling to 2% by year 10. Nothing is capped.
The 75 days are the SEC accelerated-filer deadline, the real delay between fiscal close and the 10-K. The year is counted from each company's own buy, because fiscal year ends run from January to December and a single sell date would give holds differing by up to eleven months. The newest vintage has not had its full year yet, so check the holding figure below before comparing it to an older one.
Return on Investment >= -0.1. Each raised the average return slightly over 2023-2024, on a hold-out half of the companies and on 2025; some single markets and portfolio sizes did worse.
Operating Income ÷ RevenueLatest FYOperating Income ÷ Gross ProfitLatest FY(Cash − Total Debt) ÷ Market Cap × 100Latest quarter(Current FY Revenue − Prior FY Revenue) ÷ Prior FY RevenueLatest FY vs prior FYΔNOPAT ÷ Growth CapExLatest FY vs prior FYMarket Cap ÷ Book ValueLatest quarterNet income > 0, book value at the start of the latest year, return on equity > 0Latest 3 fiscal yearsNOPAT − (CapEx − Depreciation + Δ Working Capital) > 0, return on capital > 0Latest 3 fiscal yearsGroup by Legal Name, keep one row per companyKeeps the newest valuation, then the listing in the company's home country, the USD listing, the country filtered on, the largest market cap| Portfolio Size | Avg Annualized Return | Win Rate | Winners / Losers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top 10 | +30.7% | 70.0% | 7 / 3 |
| Top 15 | +28.7% | 66.7% | 10 / 5 |
| Top 20 | +26.0% | 70.0% | 14 / 6 |
| Top 25 | +27.0% | 68.0% | 17 / 8 |
| Top 30 | +27.0% | 73.3% | 22 / 8 |
| Top 50 | +25.4% | 68.0% | 34 / 16 |
| Top 75 | +25.4% | 62.7% | 47 / 28 |
| Top 100 | +21.3% | 63.0% | 63 / 37 |
| Sector | Stocks | Avg Annual | Best | Worst | Std Dev | Avg Hold | Win Rate | W / L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | 250 | +40.5% | +248.0% | -56.1% | 51.13% | 1.00 yrs | 82.4% | 206 / 44 |
| Basic Materials | 377 | +37.5% | +347.4% | -69.4% | 70.24% | 1.00 yrs | 62.6% | 236 / 141 |
| Industrials | 920 | +24.3% | +539.4% | -100.0% | 59.74% | 1.00 yrs | 64.0% | 589 / 331 |
| Utilities | 205 | +20.6% | +327.5% | -56.3% | 40.28% | 1.00 yrs | 77.6% | 159 / 46 |
| Technology | 565 | +17.3% | +730.6% | -99.9% | 75.37% | 1.00 yrs | 49.2% | 278 / 287 |
| Financial Services | 656 | +14.0% | +624.9% | -77.6% | 45.43% | 1.00 yrs | 66.5% | 436 / 220 |
| Communication Services | 257 | +12.0% | +361.4% | -77.3% | 49.62% | 1.00 yrs | 55.6% | 143 / 114 |
| Healthcare | 493 | +9.7% | +379.4% | -85.9% | 48.64% | 1.00 yrs | 53.8% | 265 / 228 |
| Consumer Defensive | 332 | +5.5% | +377.9% | -72.5% | 40.98% | 1.00 yrs | 49.1% | 163 / 169 |
| Real Estate | 127 | +5.4% | +107.7% | -58.8% | 26.52% | 1.00 yrs | 54.3% | 69 / 58 |
| Consumer Cyclical | 590 | +3.0% | +183.3% | -87.0% | 36.28% | 1.00 yrs | 45.8% | 270 / 320 |
| Industry | Stocks | Avg Annual | Best | Worst | Avg Hold | Win Rate | W / L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other Precious Metals & Mining | 13 | +134.8% | +267.1% | -27.3% | 1.00 yrs | 92.3% | 12 / 1 |
| Gold | 51 | +130.2% | +347.4% | +0.0% | 1.00 yrs | 98.0% | 50 / 1 |
| Silver | 3 | +127.1% | +201.4% | +76.1% | 1.00 yrs | 100.0% | 3 / 0 |
| Uranium | 9 | +106.3% | +180.9% | -17.4% | 1.00 yrs | 77.8% | 7 / 2 |
| Communication Equipment | 27 | +88.3% | +730.6% | -36.6% | 1.00 yrs | 63.0% | 17 / 10 |
| Copper | 16 | +86.7% | +190.3% | -13.2% | 1.00 yrs | 93.8% | 15 / 1 |
| Aluminum | 12 | +82.7% | +173.1% | +5.7% | 0.99 yrs | 100.0% | 12 / 0 |
| Electrical Equipment & Parts | 44 | +81.2% | +539.4% | -48.7% | 1.00 yrs | 72.7% | 32 / 12 |
| Oil & Gas Drilling | 8 | +69.1% | +137.0% | -10.9% | 1.00 yrs | 87.5% | 7 / 1 |
| Aerospace & Defense | 78 | +59.0% | +275.0% | -74.3% | 1.00 yrs | 88.5% | 69 / 9 |
| Semiconductors | 59 | +55.7% | +504.1% | -56.2% | 1.00 yrs | 72.9% | 43 / 16 |
| Thermal Coal | 17 | +53.3% | +243.1% | -46.5% | 1.00 yrs | 88.2% | 15 / 2 |
| Semiconductor Equipment & Materials | 40 | +49.3% | +245.9% | -58.7% | 1.00 yrs | 67.5% | 27 / 13 |
| Other Industrial Metals & Mining | 38 | +46.1% | +194.1% | -31.8% | 1.00 yrs | 73.7% | 28 / 10 |
| Engineering & Construction | 109 | +44.5% | +387.0% | -39.9% | 1.00 yrs | 78.0% | 85 / 24 |
| Capital Markets | 71 | +44.4% | +624.9% | -51.9% | 1.00 yrs | 66.2% | 47 / 24 |
| Electronic Components | 53 | +43.8% | +338.3% | -49.8% | 1.00 yrs | 56.6% | 30 / 23 |
| Oil & Gas Equipment & Services | 39 | +42.7% | +247.4% | -33.3% | 1.00 yrs | 76.9% | 30 / 9 |
| Metal Fabrication | 16 | +41.4% | +188.1% | -48.1% | 1.00 yrs | 75.0% | 12 / 4 |
| Oil & Gas Integrated | 26 | +38.8% | +94.8% | -17.9% | 1.00 yrs | 96.2% | 25 / 1 |
Basic Materials
Communication Services
Consumer Cyclical
Consumer Defensive
Energy
Financial Services
Healthcare
Industrials
Real Estate
Technology
Utilities
| # | Ticker | Name | Exchange Country | Origin Country | Sector | Industry | Buy Date / Px | Sell Date / Px | Days | Total Return | Annualized | Ratio at Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6666.HK | Evergrande Property Services Group Limited | HK | CN | Real Estate | Real Estate Services | 2025-03-17 0.80 HKD | 2026-03-16 1.11 HKD | 364 | +38.8% | +38.9% | 27.62T |
| 2 | DOL.TO | Dollarama Inc. | CA | CA | Consumer Defensive | Discount Stores | 2024-04-15 112.70 CAD | 2025-04-15 168.54 CAD | 365 | +49.5% | +49.6% | 13.90M |
| 3 | GDDY | GoDaddy Inc. | US | US | Technology | Software - Infrastructure | 2025-03-17 180.30 USD | 2026-03-16 82.18 USD | 364 | -54.4% | -54.5% | 21.45K |
| 4 | SPG.F | Springer Nature AG & Co. KGaA | DE | DE | Communication Services | Publishing | 2025-03-17 23.28 EUR | 2026-03-16 15.28 EUR | 364 | -34.4% | -34.5% | 3.35K |
| 5 | 1364.HK | Guming Holdings Limited | HK | CN | Consumer Cyclical | Restaurants | 2025-03-17 15.54 HKD | 2026-03-16 28.49 HKD | 364 | +83.4% | +83.8% | 284.95 |
| 6 | LII | Lennox International Inc. | US | US | Industrials | Building Products & Equipment | 2025-03-17 589.75 USD | 2026-03-16 479.34 USD | 364 | -18.7% | -18.8% | 125.88 |
| 7 | MSI | Motorola Solutions, Inc. | US | US | Technology | Communication Equipment | 2025-03-17 422.01 USD | 2026-03-16 471.26 USD | 364 | +11.7% | +11.7% | 101.23 |
| 8 | LEU | Centrus Energy Corp. | US | US | Energy | Uranium | 2025-03-17 76.13 USD | 2026-03-16 213.05 USD | 364 | +179.9% | +180.9% | 96.15 |
| 9 | NVAL.F | PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited | DE | TH | Energy | Oil & Gas E&P | 2025-03-17 2.96 EUR | 2026-03-16 3.96 EUR | 364 | +33.8% | +33.9% | 84.07 |
| 10 | 8848.T | Leopalace21 Corporation | JP | JP | Real Estate | Real Estate Services | 2024-06-14 529.53 JPY | 2025-06-13 614.61 JPY | 364 | +16.1% | +16.1% | 62.75 |
| 11 | BMA | Banco Macro S.A. | US | AR | Financial Services | Banks - Regional | 2025-03-17 83.18 USD | 2026-03-16 65.72 USD | 364 | -21.0% | -21.1% | 54.64 |
| 12 | NBS.L | Nationwide Building Society | GB | GB | Financial Services | Banks - Regional | 2024-06-14 129.63 GBP | 2025-06-13 130.63 GBP | 364 | +0.8% | +0.8% | 32.17 |
| 13 | APA | APA Corporation | US | US | Energy | Oil & Gas E&P | 2025-03-17 20.05 USD | 2026-03-16 34.57 USD | 364 | +72.4% | +72.8% | 20.64 |
| 14 | PET.TO | Pet Valu Holdings Ltd. | CA | CA | Consumer Cyclical | Specialty Retail | 2025-03-17 24.47 CAD | 2026-03-16 22.76 CAD | 364 | -7.0% | -7.0% | 20.06 |
| 15 | PME.AX | Pro Medicus Limited | AU | AU | Healthcare | Health Information Services | 2024-09-13 167.79 AUD | 2025-09-12 298.75 AUD | 364 | +78.1% | +78.4% | 19.40 |
| 16 | VG | Venture Global, Inc. | US | US | Energy | Oil & Gas Midstream | 2025-03-17 11.30 USD | 2026-03-16 12.29 USD | 364 | +8.8% | +8.8% | 16.99 |
| 17 | IAG.L | International Consolidated Airlines Group S.A. | GB | GB | Industrials | Airlines | 2025-03-17 289.29 GBp | 2026-03-16 352.75 GBp | 364 | +21.9% | +22.0% | 16.60 |
| 18 | 1216.HK | Zhongyuan Bank Co., Ltd. | HK | CN | Financial Services | Banks - Regional | 2025-03-17 0.32 HKD | 2026-03-16 0.34 HKD | 364 | +6.3% | +6.3% | 15.52 |
| 19 | COR | Cencora, Inc. | US | US | Healthcare | Medical Distribution | 2024-12-16 230.05 USD | 2025-12-12 346.35 USD | 361 | +50.6% | +51.3% | 13.92 |
| 20 | 1186.HK | China Railway Construction Corporation Limited | HK | CN | Industrials | Engineering & Construction | 2025-03-17 5.47 HKD | 2026-03-16 5.46 HKD | 364 | -0.2% | -0.2% | 13.09 |
| 21 | BBAR | Banco BBVA Argentina S.A. | US | AR | Financial Services | Banks - Regional | 2025-03-17 18.44 USD | 2026-03-16 12.88 USD | 364 | -30.1% | -30.2% | 12.90 |
| 22 | 9668.HK | China Bohai Bank Co., Ltd. | HK | CN | Financial Services | Banks - Regional | 2025-03-17 0.88 HKD | 2026-03-16 0.87 HKD | 364 | -1.1% | -1.1% | 12.52 |
| 23 | 0267.HK | CITIC Limited | HK | HK | Industrials | Conglomerates | 2025-03-17 9.53 HKD | 2026-03-16 11.47 HKD | 364 | +20.4% | +20.5% | 12.00 |
| 24 | 000880.KS | Hanwha Corporation | KR | KR | Industrials | Conglomerates | 2025-03-17 62070.07 KRW | 2026-03-16 163711.45 KRW | 364 | +163.8% | +164.6% | 11.79 |
| 25 | 2009.HK | BBMG Corporation | HK | CN | Basic Materials | Building Materials | 2025-03-17 0.79 HKD | 2026-03-16 0.81 HKD | 364 | +2.5% | +2.5% | 11.63 |
| 26 | 3BZ.F | Bank of Zhengzhou Co., Ltd. | DE | CN | Financial Services | Banks - Regional | 2025-03-17 0.11 EUR | 2026-03-16 0.11 EUR | 364 | +1.8% | +1.8% | 11.63 |
| 27 | B95.F | Bank of Tianjin Co., Ltd. | DE | CN | Financial Services | Banks - Regional | 2025-03-17 0.20 EUR | 2026-03-16 0.24 EUR | 364 | +18.8% | +18.9% | 11.56 |
| 28 | BFH | Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. | US | US | Financial Services | Credit Services | 2025-03-17 48.01 USD | 2026-03-16 69.99 USD | 364 | +45.8% | +46.0% | 11.23 |
| 29 | 3698.HK | Huishang Bank Corporation Limited | HK | CN | Financial Services | Banks - Regional | 2025-03-17 2.64 HKD | 2026-03-16 4.26 HKD | 364 | +61.4% | +61.6% | 10.38 |
| 30 | 5UM.F | Genertec Universal Medical Group Company Limited | DE | CN | Financial Services | Credit Services | 2025-03-17 0.60 EUR | 2026-03-16 0.64 EUR | 364 | +6.7% | +6.7% | 10.24 |
| 31 | ZIM | ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd. | US | IL | Industrials | Marine Shipping | 2025-03-17 18.45 USD | 2026-03-16 26.75 USD | 364 | +45.0% | +45.2% | 10.03 |
| 32 | 3360.HK | Far East Horizon Limited | HK | HK | Financial Services | Credit Services | 2025-03-17 6.44 HKD | 2026-03-16 7.08 HKD | 364 | +10.0% | +10.0% | 9.78 |
| 33 | 9911.HK | Newborn Town Inc. | HK | HK | Technology | Software - Application | 2025-03-17 5.71 HKD | 2026-03-16 10.06 HKD | 364 | +76.3% | +76.7% | 9.26 |
| 34 | ADS0.F | adidas AG | DE | DE | Consumer Cyclical | Footwear & Accessories | 2025-03-25 5.72 EUR | 2026-03-16 3.80 EUR | 356 | -33.5% | -34.2% | 8.95 |
| 35 | 139130.KS | iM Financial Group Co., Ltd. | KR | KR | Financial Services | Banks - Regional | 2025-03-17 9149.14 KRW | 2026-03-16 16526.51 KRW | 364 | +80.6% | +81.0% | 8.92 |
| 36 | 0390.HK | China Railway Group Limited | HK | CN | Industrials | Engineering & Construction | 2025-03-17 4.03 HKD | 2026-03-16 4.53 HKD | 364 | +12.4% | +12.5% | 8.78 |
| 37 | 034730.KS | SK Inc. | KR | KR | Industrials | Conglomerates | 2025-03-17 138338.20 KRW | 2026-03-16 330830.50 KRW | 364 | +139.1% | +139.9% | 8.32 |
| 38 | 2B5.F | BAIC Motor Corporation Limited | DE | CN | Consumer Cyclical | Auto Manufacturers | 2025-03-17 0.30 EUR | 2026-03-16 0.17 EUR | 364 | -41.1% | -41.2% | 8.00 |
| 39 | 6623.HK | Lufax Holding Ltd | HK | CN | Financial Services | Credit Services | 2025-03-17 10.91 HKD | 2026-03-16 10.91 HKD | 364 | +0.0% | N/A | 7.80 |
| 40 | 0010.HK | Hang Lung Group Limited | HK | HK | Real Estate | Real Estate Services | 2025-03-17 11.25 HKD | 2026-03-16 15.67 HKD | 364 | +39.2% | +39.4% | 7.75 |
| 41 | 078930.KS | GS Holdings Corp. | KR | KR | Industrials | Conglomerates | 2025-03-17 37187.15 KRW | 2026-03-16 62362.30 KRW | 364 | +67.7% | +68.0% | 7.72 |
| 42 | 0017.HK | New World Development Company Limited | HK | HK | Real Estate | Real Estate - Diversified | 2024-09-13 6.44 HKD | 2025-09-12 8.58 HKD | 364 | +33.3% | +33.4% | 7.70 |
| 43 | 1PC.F | Legend Holdings Corporation | DE | CN | Technology | Computer Hardware | 2025-03-17 1.00 EUR | 2026-03-16 0.94 EUR | 364 | -6.5% | -6.5% | 7.61 |
| 44 | 462870.KS | SHIFT UP | KR | KR | Communication Services | Electronic Gaming & Multimedia | 2025-03-17 59559.50 KRW | 2026-03-16 30030.00 KRW | 364 | -49.6% | -49.7% | 7.33 |
| 45 | 1988.HK | China Minsheng Banking Corp., Ltd. | HK | CN | Financial Services | Banks - Regional | 2025-03-17 3.91 HKD | 2026-03-16 3.91 HKD | 364 | +0.0% | N/A | 7.32 |
| 46 | FLR | Fluor Corporation | US | US | Industrials | Engineering & Construction | 2025-03-17 37.39 USD | 2026-03-16 43.87 USD | 364 | +17.3% | +17.4% | 7.28 |
| 47 | 8425.T | Mizuho Leasing Company, Limited | JP | JP | Financial Services | Credit Services | 2024-06-14 1109.11 JPY | 2025-06-13 1062.06 JPY | 364 | -4.2% | -4.3% | 7.14 |
| 48 | 6MT.F | Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd. | DE | CN | Industrials | Engineering & Construction | 2025-03-17 0.19 EUR | 2026-03-16 0.19 EUR | 364 | +0.0% | N/A | 7.06 |
| 49 | 2016.HK | China Zheshang Bank Co., Ltd | HK | CN | Financial Services | Banks - Regional | 2025-03-17 2.46 HKD | 2026-03-16 2.62 HKD | 364 | +6.5% | +6.5% | 7.01 |
| 50 | 138930.KS | BNK Financial Group Inc. | KR | KR | Financial Services | Banks - Regional | 2025-03-17 11011.00 KRW | 2026-03-16 18158.14 KRW | 364 | +64.9% | +65.2% | 6.84 |