Agroserv Mariuta S.A.
MILK.RO · Consumer Defensive · Annual report 2025-12-31 · 6 reported years · Figures in RON
Market Cap
66.54M RON
Price on 2026-10-28
Average of the Three Values
36.88M RON
The plain average of EPV, Profit and FCFF
Intrinsic / Market Ratio
0.55×
Average / Market Cap, the ratio the list ranks by
Margin of Safety (Average)
-80.4%
1 − Market Cap / Average of the Three Values
Price / Book
1.94×
Market Cap / Book Value as printed (34.25M)
Greenwald Value, Case A: Earnings Power
-9.17M RON
Assets earn too little
Evidence: N is a note in the company's reports, F a line of its financial statements, R a fact from recent research; +n is n more sources. This page reads the company's own reports at its price date; the screener's values, the hollow dots, read the data provider's figures at their own date, so they differ on purpose.
Price vs Value
Every value of the company against the Market Cap on the price date above.
Bottom line
Agroserv Mariuta is worth 36.84M RON against a market cap of 66.47M RON, a margin of safety of -80.4%: the price is above the value. The intrinsic value is the average of EPV + growth (-9.16M RON), Profit (59.84M RON) and FCFF (59.84M RON). Neither Profit nor FCFF could be projected (a loss in the latest three years for Profit, a working capital swing above half the operating profit for FCFF), so both stand at the asset value, what an entrant would spend to rebuild the business less what it owes. Greenwald's value on the case is the earnings power of the equity, -9.16M RON: the earnings power of the business, 79.19M RON, does not cover the debt it carries. With no barrier to entry, net debt at 4.31x EBITDA and Profit's printed growth at -2.9%, the price already pays more than an entrant would spend to rebuild the business.Book Value
Assets less liabilities, as printed
Asset Value
What an entrant would spend to reproduce the assets, less what is owed
EPV + Growth Value
From the report's figures
Profit
From the report's figures
FCFF
From the report's figures
Average of the Three
Uncapped, as the screener averages them
Greenwald Value, Case A: Earnings Power
The value Greenwald assigns on this case
How Each Value Is Built
The screener's three formulas on the report's own figures. Each card reads the same way: the value as a sum of numbered terms, each term's calculation opened under it, from the reported figures to the value. The verdict rests on their plain average, as the screener ranks; the Greenwald value on the company's case is a reading beside it.
What it is worth
EPV + Growth
-9.17M RON
what the normal year's earnings are worth for ever, plus growth that pays
Profit
59.90M RON
15 years of cash the shareholders can take out, and the equity left at year 15
FCFF
59.90M RON
15 years of cash for shareholders and lenders, less what is owed
Average Intrinsic Value
36.88M RON
The plain average of EPV, Profit and FCFF
Against the price
Market Cap
66.54M RON
the price on the date above times the shares
Intrinsic Value ÷ Market Cap
0.55×
the ratio the screener ranks by
Margin of Safety
-80.4%
1 − Market Cap / Average Intrinsic Value
EPV of the Operations (NOPAT over WACC)
79.27M RON
Net Debt and Claims Ahead of the Shareholders
-88.44M RON
Growth Value
0 RON
Value
-9.17M RON
①EPV of the Equity
-9.17M RON②Growth Value
0 RONMarket value
The price on the date above times the shares.
Value vs market
1 minus the market cap as a share of the value.
The projection was not made: a profit at or below zero in the latest three years, so the value is the asset value alone, as the screener leaves its book.
①Present Value of the 15 Years of FCFE
Not in the value②Equity at Year 15, Today
Not in the valueMarket value
The price on the date above times the shares.
Value vs market
1 minus the market cap as a share of the value.
The projection was not made: a change in working capital above half the operating profit in the latest three years, so the value is the asset value alone, as the screener leaves its book.
①Present Value of the 15 Years of FCFF
Not in the value②Invested Capital at Year 15, Today
Not in the value③Net Debt and Claims Ahead of the Shareholders
-88.44M RONMarket value
The price on the date above times the shares.
Value vs market
1 minus the market cap as a share of the value.
36.88M RON
Average on the reported years
EPV + Growth Value, Profit and FCFF on the years as reported
0 RON
Growth by five-year blocks
no value moved
36.88M RON
Intrinsic value
the average the verdict rests on
Inflection: none, so the latest five reported years are read.
One good year with no lasting cause: 2025 is the only profitable full year among the printed years, after losses in 2023 and 2024. Cycle and one-off: the 2024 loss came from drought that destroyed the whole maize crop (N328), and the notes call the write-off of that crop largely a one-off cost (N359). So the 2025 recovery is mostly that one-off dropping out, plus a normal harvest, not a new business. Commodity cycle: raw milk prices are falling, as N407 says ("anul 2026 debutează cu un preț al laptelui mai scăzut"), and R020 prints a Romanian fall of "-11% față de iunie 2025". Subsidies: operating subsidies are a large part of the result and are booked on management estimates (N394, N360). The latest report already shows the profit fading: H1 2026 net profit is down, as N436 prints ("-66%"), and R001 confirms it.
Profit growth: the fundamental growth of the reported years.
FCFF growth: the fundamental growth of the reported years.
- Profit growth by blocks: not used, the projection was not made (a profit at or below zero in the latest three years), so the value is the asset value.
- FCFF growth by blocks: not used, the projection was not made (a change in working capital above half the operating profit in the latest three years), so the value is the asset value.
Earnings Power vs Assets
Does the business earn more than it would cost to rebuild? Greenwald's test for a moat.
Asset Value
What a newcomer would spend to rebuild it, less what it owes; the bar runs from every asset at the cautious end of its inputs to every asset at the generous end (see Adjusted Balance Sheet)
35.65M – 115.31M
Earnings Power Value
What the business earns, as if it never grew
-9.17M RON
Market Cap
What the market pays for all the shares
66.54M RON
Logarithmic axis: 0.80× and 1.25× are the same distance from 1×.
Case A: The Assets Earn Too Little (This Company)
The business earns less than it would cost to rebuild. A newcomer would not build it, so the value is what it earns, not what its assets cost.
Case B: A Normal Business
It earns about what its assets cost to rebuild: no moat and no penalty. The value is the asset value.
Case C: Something Protects It
It earns well above what its assets cost. Something keeps newcomers out, and that franchise is worth the difference.
Franchise value
Earnings power value less asset value: what a moat is worth, negative when there is none.
-69.07M RON
Bear case
The bear case is a value toward the low end of the asset value, 35.61M RON.
Base case
The base case is what the printed years support: the intrinsic value of 36.84M RON, below the market cap of 66.47M RON.
Bull case
The bull case would be Profit and FCFF projected at their growth basis, averaged with EPV + growth; neither can be projected on the printed years, so both stand at the asset value of 59.84M RON.
Expected Return
What a buyer at this price earns a year if the business holds: cash returned, organic growth and reinvestment, against the cost of equity.
0.0%
Cash Returned
Earnings Power less the cost of today's debt after tax (its rate × the debt), 1.91M RON, × 0.0% paid out, over the market cap
10.0%
Organic Growth
Revenue growth of 18.1% a year, the average of the reported years (Returns, Payouts and Debt), × value over price of 0.55
1.5%
Reinvestment
3.23M RON kept beyond what organic growth needs × 0.31 of value created per unit, over the market cap
11.5%
Expected Return a Year
At value equal to price: 19.6%
Against a cost of equity of 14.3%: below it by 2.8%. At this price the business does not earn its cost of equity.
Paid out: the reported years' dividends and the buybacks beyond the shares issued, over net income, averaged. Value created per unit: the return on capital over the cost of equity. Working capital per unit of revenue: -6.7%.
What Comes Next
Dated events ahead that can matter to a holder, each with the quote that dates it.
- 2026Q3 2026 financial results publishedResults
Either way for holders
The quarter includes the delayed harvest revenue and shows whether the company is still on track for its unchanged 2026 budget after H1 net profit fell 66%.
Earnings Power, Step by Step
Average margin on sustainable revenue, average tax, depreciation above maintenance CapEx.
From Revenue to the Value of the Operations
109.10M RON
Latest Revenue
6.1%
Average Operating Margin, Latest 5 Reported Years
6.63M RON
Sustainable Operating Profit
16.0%
Average Tax Rate
2.30M RON
Depreciation Above Maintenance CapEx, After Tax
7.86M RON
Earnings Power (NOPAT)
9.9%
Cost of Capital (WACC)
79.27M RON
EPV of the Operations
Average Tax Rate, set by the analyst: The only profitable reported year, 2025, paid 277,535 on a profit before tax of 4,022,048 (6.9%) because it used up losses carried from 2022-2024 (pretax losses of 1.89m, 2.27m and 3.56m); losses carried forward run out, so the sustainable rate is the statutory profit tax of 16% (R022), not the 6.9% of a year still absorbing past losses.
Cost of equity: 7.2% the 10-year government bond in RON + beta 1.00 (judged by the analyst from listed companies in the same business, the stock trading too thinly for its own) × 7.08% the country's equity risk premium = 14.28%, in the currency of the figures it discounts.
Cost of debt after tax: interest of 7.37M RON over the year's average debt of 92.80M RON, less tax at 16.0% = 6.67%. Weighted 42.69% equity at the market cap, 57.31% debt: 9.92%.
From the Operations to the Shareholders
EPV of the Operations
79.27M RON
Free Cash
cash the company may use freely
+858.98K RON
Assets the Business Does Not Need
Financial investments
+11.01K RON
Debt
financial debt and leases
-89.31M RON
Claims Ahead of the Shareholders
minority interests, a dividend already declared
0 RON
Legacy Liabilities
pensions, lawsuits, environment: inherited from the past
0 RON
EPV of the Equity
-9.17M RON
No cell reaches the price between 7.9% and 11.9% cost of capital.
EPV of the equity in RON; the outlined cell is the analysis's own. Green above the market cap (66.54M), red below.
Returns, Payouts and Debt
What each reported year earned, paid to shareholders and owed, as the report prints it, before any adjustment.
Return on Capital, 2025
8.3%
operating profit after tax over book plus net debt
Dividend Yield
0.0%
the latest year's dividends over the Market Cap on the price date above
Paid Out in All, 2025
0.0%
dividends and the buybacks beyond the shares issued, over profit
Net Debt over EBITDA, 2025
4.3×
years of operating profit before depreciation to repay it
Dividend policy: The company aims to reward investors with bonus shares by capitalising part of its accumulated net profits rather than with cash dividends. The 2025 net profit of 3.744.513 lei went to legal reserves and to partly cover the prior year's tax loss, so no dividend was paid.
Lenders' conditions
- The credit agreements contain affirmative, negative and financial conditions; a breach of any of them can make drawn credit immediately due, and the company says its liquidity at that moment may not be enough to repay.
- The loan contracts set liquidity indicators; if they are not met, creditors could enforce on the company's main assets or seek insolvency proceedings.
- The MILK28E bonds are secured by mortgages on more than 70 hectares of agricultural land and by receivables from a supply contract with a major retail partner.
Financial Statements
Every line the reports print, in RON, before any adjustment, then what is calculated from them. Open a period for the document it comes from.
Who Owns It
Every holder of 5% or more of the capital the reports and the research name (5% is the share at which holders must disclose), then the rest of the capital.
Mădălina Cocan (Cocan Madalina Oana)
Family or founder
67.5%
EVERGENT INVESTMENTS S.A.
Fund or institution
11.4%
The rest of the capital
holders the reports and the research do not name
21.1%
Peers
The company against listings in the same industry: how the market prices them, what they earn.
| Peer | Market | Market Cap (USD) | Price / Book | ROE | Op. Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1936.HK Ritamix Global Limited | HK | 267.84M | 7.62× | 8.2% | 12.2% |
MPQ.F MHP SE | DE | 576.24M | 0.28× | 2.6% | 3.1% |
7555.T Ota Floriculture Auction Co.,Ltd. | JP | 23.25M | 0.71× | 1.1% | -5.6% |
2003.T Nitto Fuji Flour Milling Co.,Ltd. | JP | 427.52M | 1.36× | 6.7% | 5.4% |
BZ3.F Sipef NV | DE | 1.28B | 1.21× | 13.2% | 29.9% |
1380.T Akikawa Foods & Farms Co., Ltd. | JP | 26.35M | 1.93× | 1.1% | -0.4% |
AGTF.TO AGT Food and Ingredients Inc. | CA | 970.86M | 1.12× | — | 0.5% |
6BF.F P/F Bakkafrost | DE | 2.90B | 1.73× | 7.6% | -10.5% |
2BU.F Bumitama Agri Ltd. | DE | 2.16B | 2.15× | 23.4% | 0.0% |
9955.T The Yonkyu Co.,Ltd. | JP | 213.80M | 0.84× | 10.1% | 4.5% |
SGLLV.AX Ricegrowers Limited | AU | 675.37M | 1.44× | 11.3% | 5.9% |
CALM Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. | US | 2.93B | 1.13× | 2.4% | -15.1% |
Farm Products in the screener: 12 of 64, none listed in the same market (RO), so the closest in size. The company's own figures are from its report (2025): net income over the printed book value, operating profit over revenue.
In Our Strategy
Where the screener ranks the company and whether the strategy would buy it.
Not placed: no valuation in the database for this listing.
Adjusted Balance Sheet
From the book value the balance sheet prints to the asset value a buyer would count.
Book Value
assets less liabilities, as printed
34.25M RON
Tangible fixed assets
+562.60K RON
Inventories
-67.72K RON
Receivables
+2.85M RON
Laptaria cu Caimac brand
not in the balance sheet
+9.12M RON
Retail listings and distribution
not in the balance sheet
+3.75M RON
Trained workforce
not in the balance sheet
+3.42M RON
Organisation (farm and factory management, IFS certification, systems)
not in the balance sheet
+6.01M RON
Asset Value
at reproduction, less what is owed
59.90M RON
Investor Checklist
The questions to ask of any business, answered from the reports and research, or marked unknown.
Answered
20
questions
Not applicable
1
question
Unknown
1
question
business
The largest customers, products, suppliers and countries, and their share of revenue.
Sales lean on a few international retail chains. The company had 257 active customers in 2025, and the largest one alone accounts for a large part of total turnover. The dairy factory is the dominant segment.
- Customers: four of the top five are retailers. The largest takes a large part of total turnover, and the second a smaller but material share (N452).
- Products: the dairy factory brings in most of the turnover. Crops and livestock make up the rest (N396, N425).
- Raw milk: part of the farm's milk is sold to other processors (N403).
- Countries: mainly Romania. Pregnant heifers were exported to Moldova (N429), and an agreement with Markant AG gives access to European retail networks (N191).
- Suppliers: the reports give no shares for suppliers.
Fixed against variable costs, operating leverage, the main cost lines and what drives them.
Raw materials are the largest cost and the most variable one. Personnel, depreciation and interest are largely fixed, and with the factory using 34% of its capacity they give the business strong operating leverage.
- Raw materials and consumables: 56,607,158 in 2025 (F112), driven by feed, farm inputs and prices (N372).
- Personnel: 20,937,858 in 2025 (F113), rising with legislation and wage increases (N362).
- Depreciation and value adjustments: 9,737,456 in 2025 (F114), reflecting a capital-intensive asset base (N224).
- Other operating expenses: 32,292,689 in 2025 (F115).
- Financial expenses: 7,360,092 in 2025 (F118), of which interest 5,452,407 (F214). Interest is high against operating profit (N227).
- Indirect production cost per litre fell from "2,92 lei/litru" in 2018 to "2.09 lei/litru" in 2024 (N341).
How revenue, volumes and margins moved through past cycles and shocks.
Results swing with weather, the raw milk price, input costs and retail terms. The company made net losses in 2022, 2023 and 2024, returned to profit in 2025, and fell back in H1 2026.
- 2022: a net loss from energy costs, inflation and drought (N171).
- 2023: price caps and Law 81/2022 (N273), plus the loss of a national chain (N292). A second net loss followed (N319).
- 2024: drought destroyed the whole maize crop (N328), and the operating result collapsed (N358).
- 2025: operating result of 11,165,496 and net profit of 3,744,513 (F116, F124).
- H1 2026: net profit fell 66% (R001), EBITDA 19% (R002) and livestock revenue 18% on the lower raw milk price (R004). The Romanian price fell 11% year on year (R020).
industry
What could replace the product or shrink the industry: substitutes, technology, energy transition, regulation.
Dairy staples have no real substitute in the evidence, and the retail market is expected to grow 5% in 2026. The threats come from regulation, retailers and channel shifts, not from replacement of the product.
- Regulation: the government capped shelf prices and retail mark-ups, and Law 81/2022 changed supplier-retailer dealings (N273).
- Channel: discount stores, which are not a focus for the brand, are growing (N292).
- Packaging rules: the bottle and jar recovery project depends on grants and legislation (N414).
- Energy: the biogas project was dropped (N413), and EU grants were won for photovoltaic plants (N448).
moat
Return on equity and on capital over the years in the statements, against the cost of capital.
Returns have been below the cost of equity. Net losses ran through 2022-2024, and the 2025 net profit of 3,744,513 sits against equity of 34,214,876. The cost of equity rests on a Romanian 10-year yield of 7.20% and an equity risk premium of 7.08%.
When the protections expire or could erode: licence or concession end dates, patent expiries, regulatory reviews, contract renewals.
There is no protection to expire. No licence, captivity, technology or scale barrier holds. What could still erode are retail contract terms and certification.
- IFS certification is maintained and needed for export to EU retailers (N374).
- The Markant AG agreement has terms negotiated until 2025 (N191).
- Changes in large retail chains' contract terms could hurt results (N423).
- The MILK28E bonds are secured by receivables from a supply contract with a major retailer (N376).
earnings
One-off items, accruals against cash, capitalised costs, stock-based pay, provisions built or released.
Earnings lean on judgemental subsidy income, non-cash production income and recurring disposal losses. In 2025, operating cash flow of 8,538,435 exceeded net income of 3,744,513.
- Subsidies: APIA income is booked on management's estimate of claims filed (N394). The H1 2026 diesel subsidy may not recur (N434).
- Work in progress: 12,867,647 of production income in 2025 (F108), a non-cash item (N024).
- Capitalised costs: interest capitalised on long-built assets (N106), and price differences capitalised in inventory (N113).
- Disposal losses recur, mostly on culled cattle: 1,698,868 in 2025 (F212, N390).
- Provisions: a receivables allowance of 2,847,203 (N465), partly reversed in 2025 (F210). An inventory write-down was charged in 2024 (N391).
- Past accounting errors were corrected through equity (N075). A stock option plan was approved (N447).
Capital spending needed just to keep capacity, against growth spending and against depreciation.
Capex in 2025 fell to 3,835,382, against depreciation of 9,251,270. The herd, at its maximum size, was replaced outside the capex line with heifers worth 5,694,996, so maintenance spending is well above printed capex.
- Tangible capex: 9,080,907 in 2023, 9,924,026 in 2024 and 3,835,382 in 2025 (F167, F197, F227).
- Herd replacement: 5,694,996 of heifers moved from inventory and 6,323,110 of cows sold (N457). The herd is at maximum capacity (N400).
- Most of the machinery's cost is already used up (N461), so replacement spending lies ahead.
balance sheet
Guarantees, purchase commitments, leases, pensions, litigation, environmental and decommissioning duties, obligations at the end of a concession.
The reports show no pensions and no environmental liability, but assets are heavily pledged and some obligations are unquantified.
- There are no pension or post-employment obligations (N110).
- Lawsuits to recover receivables are under way, with no amounts disclosed (N159).
- No environmental liability is recorded, and no environmental lawsuits are expected (N161, N325).
- Grant conditions require keeping the activity and jobs going (N210).
- Pledges: mortgages on land and buildings, the herd, and receivables from significant customers (N135, N139, N376).
- Profit tax has never been inspected, and the recorded taxes could be challenged (N160, N373).
- Advances were paid to non-resident suppliers, which carries recovery risk (N240).
- Purchase commitments are not disclosed.
Debt, maturities, covenants, refinancing needs, liquidity.
At end-2025, current bank debt of 45,334,394, long-term bank debt and bonds of 38,835,142, and leases sat against cash of 858,119. Current liabilities of 72,800,905 exceeded current assets of 55,237,076.
- June 2026: current bank debt 39,440,421, long-term bank debt and bonds 48,038,966, cash 1,609,202 (F071, F076, F066).
- Covenants: a breach can make the loans due at once, and liquidity may not be enough to repay them (N380, N305).
- Rates: fixed on the bonds and variable on the bank loans, with FX differences on top (N356, N435).
- Refinancing: the credit lines are renewed each year (N134). The MILK25E bonds were repaid through new MILK28E bonds secured on farmland (N377, N376).
- Management treats the company as a going concern despite negative net working capital (N111).
Assets the business does not need to run: surplus cash, investments, idle land or plant.
There is no surplus to speak of. Financial investments are 11,000 and cash is 858,119. The factory's spare capacity is operating capacity, not an excess asset.
management
Dividends, buybacks, investments and acquisitions over time, and what they returned.
Capital went into the farm and factory, funded by a 2021 private placement, bonds and bank debt. No cash dividend has been paid since 2020, and returns since have mostly been losses.
- Dividends: paid in 2020 (N095), none since. Bonus shares are the policy (N006, N008), and the 2025 profit went to reserves and prior losses (N444).
- Investment: heavy capex in 2021 (N088), and bond money spent on the factory expansion, warehouse and cheese and butter section (N128, N182).
- Buyback approved (N445). The board can raise capital for three years (N446).
- Projects: biogas dropped (N413), photovoltaic grants won (N448). A capital increase was set aside in favour of new bonds (N412).
Minority protection, related-party dealings, the board and its independence (the main shareholders have their own section).
Control sits with one family. Two of the three directors are independent, but the protections for minority shareholders are thin.
- The board chairman and founder is related to the majority shareholder (N409).
- The board has three members, two of them independent (N212). A company controlled by an independent director faces an insolvency request (N213).
- The board had not yet adopted rules on conflicts of interest (N215).
- A related party, Agrobest S.R.L., was settled to zero by end-2021 (N057).
- Capital can be raised without a new vote (N446), and a stock option plan was approved (N447).
- The auditor is PKF Finconta (N375). Internal audit was outsourced (N417). The H1 2026 figures are unaudited (N418).
Who runs it, their record, their incentives, turnover.
The company is run by its founder and majority owner, Mădălina Oana Cocan, who holds 67.4986%. The record shows missed targets and three loss years before 2025's profit.
- 2021 results fell below the listing forecasts (N034).
- The 2023 budget aimed for a return to profit (N178), but 2023 closed with a net loss (N319).
- A new board chair and a new general manager were appointed (N327).
- Incentives: a stock option plan (N447). Management keeps the 2026 budget unchanged (N449).
regulation
Who regulates, how prices or tariffs are set, the allowed return, the next review.
Prices are not regulated, and there is no allowed return or tariff review. The state intervenes through price caps, rules on dealings with retailers and farm subsidies.
- Price caps on shelf prices and retail mark-ups, and Law 81/2022 on supplier-retailer dealings (N273).
- APIA subsidies for farmland and milk production (N317), booked on estimates (N394).
- Profit tax at 16% (R022), with tax rules open to interpretation (N373).
Special taxes, state intervention, currency, country risk.
Country risk is high. Romania is rated Baa3, with a country risk premium of 2.85%, and the IMF projects a 0.5% fall in real GDP in 2026.
- The war in Ukraine affects currency, interest rates, credit and energy (N451).
- Currency: FX differences on foreign-currency balances (N435).
- Results depend on subsidy policy (N078).
- The 10-year yield was 7.20% on 30 October 2026 (R008).
technology
The systems the business runs on (control, IT, automation): their state, cyber risk, obsolescence.
The reports do not describe the control, IT or automation systems, their age or cyber risk. Only food-safety certification (N374) and irrigation (N036) are mentioned.
For a technology-driven business: switching costs, network effects, proprietary data, R&D as investment, marginal cost of scale, retention.
This is not a technology-driven business. Capitalised development is almost fully amortised (N127), and none of the barriers rests on technology.
Age and condition of the physical assets, remaining life, deferred maintenance.
The factory is fairly new, but the machinery is old. Close to half of the buildings' cost and most of the machinery's cost are already used up.
- The factory has run since 2018 (N104). A second hall came into use in 2022 (N282).
- Part of the herd was sold to make it younger (N126).
- Assets under construction carry an impairment of 2,038,964 (N463) and capitalised interest (N106).
- The reports do not quantify deferred maintenance.
market
What the price implies, liquidity, analyst coverage, why the market pays what it pays.
The price stands above the asset value, although nothing protects the earnings. Trading is thin, so the price is a weak benchmark. The research shows no analyst coverage.
- The shares trade thinly (N411, N368).
- The 2021 private placement and Evergent's purchase set market reference prices (N002, N003).
- No cash dividend supports the price (N444).
Why the gap might never close.
The gap may never close because no barrier lifts returns above the cost of capital, and interest absorbs much of the operating profit.
- Financial expenses exceed or absorb the operating result (N174, N227).
- The controlling holder has 67.4986% and trading is thin (R006, N411).
- There is no cash dividend (N444), and dilution authority exists (N446).
- Price caps limit the margin (N273).
decision
The facts that, if observed, would prove the conclusion wrong.
The conclusion that the price pays above what the business is worth would be wrong if earnings proved durable or the assets proved worth more than their base values.
- Q3 2026 results (25 November 2026, R005) and the full year meet the budget's net profit of 2.3 million lei (R003), and profits recur.
- Factory use rises well above its present share of capacity (N401), and volume gains hold through retail terms.
- Land, building and equipment prices, once sourced, show reproduction costs well above book.
- On the downside: a covenant breach (N380), or losing the largest customer, which alone takes a large part of turnover (N452).
| Question | Answer | Evidence | |
|---|---|---|---|
| business | |||
| The largest customers, products, suppliers and countries, and their share of revenue. | Sales lean on a few international retail chains. The company had 257 active customers in 2025, and the largest one alone accounts for a large part of total turnover. The dairy factory is the dominant segment.
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| Fixed against variable costs, operating leverage, the main cost lines and what drives them. | Raw materials are the largest cost and the most variable one. Personnel, depreciation and interest are largely fixed, and with the factory using 34% of its capacity they give the business strong operating leverage.
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| How revenue, volumes and margins moved through past cycles and shocks. | Results swing with weather, the raw milk price, input costs and retail terms. The company made net losses in 2022, 2023 and 2024, returned to profit in 2025, and fell back in H1 2026.
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| industry | |||
| What could replace the product or shrink the industry: substitutes, technology, energy transition, regulation. | Dairy staples have no real substitute in the evidence, and the retail market is expected to grow 5% in 2026. The threats come from regulation, retailers and channel shifts, not from replacement of the product.
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| moat | |||
| Return on equity and on capital over the years in the statements, against the cost of capital. | Returns have been below the cost of equity. Net losses ran through 2022-2024, and the 2025 net profit of 3,744,513 sits against equity of 34,214,876. The cost of equity rests on a Romanian 10-year yield of 7.20% and an equity risk premium of 7.08%. | ||
| When the protections expire or could erode: licence or concession end dates, patent expiries, regulatory reviews, contract renewals. | There is no protection to expire. No licence, captivity, technology or scale barrier holds. What could still erode are retail contract terms and certification.
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| earnings | |||
| One-off items, accruals against cash, capitalised costs, stock-based pay, provisions built or released. | Earnings lean on judgemental subsidy income, non-cash production income and recurring disposal losses. In 2025, operating cash flow of 8,538,435 exceeded net income of 3,744,513.
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| Capital spending needed just to keep capacity, against growth spending and against depreciation. | Capex in 2025 fell to 3,835,382, against depreciation of 9,251,270. The herd, at its maximum size, was replaced outside the capex line with heifers worth 5,694,996, so maintenance spending is well above printed capex.
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| balance sheet | |||
| Guarantees, purchase commitments, leases, pensions, litigation, environmental and decommissioning duties, obligations at the end of a concession. | The reports show no pensions and no environmental liability, but assets are heavily pledged and some obligations are unquantified.
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| Debt, maturities, covenants, refinancing needs, liquidity. | At end-2025, current bank debt of 45,334,394, long-term bank debt and bonds of 38,835,142, and leases sat against cash of 858,119. Current liabilities of 72,800,905 exceeded current assets of 55,237,076.
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| Assets the business does not need to run: surplus cash, investments, idle land or plant. | There is no surplus to speak of. Financial investments are 11,000 and cash is 858,119. The factory's spare capacity is operating capacity, not an excess asset. | ||
| management | |||
| Dividends, buybacks, investments and acquisitions over time, and what they returned. | Capital went into the farm and factory, funded by a 2021 private placement, bonds and bank debt. No cash dividend has been paid since 2020, and returns since have mostly been losses.
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| Minority protection, related-party dealings, the board and its independence (the main shareholders have their own section). | Control sits with one family. Two of the three directors are independent, but the protections for minority shareholders are thin.
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| Who runs it, their record, their incentives, turnover. | The company is run by its founder and majority owner, Mădălina Oana Cocan, who holds 67.4986%. The record shows missed targets and three loss years before 2025's profit.
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| regulation | |||
| Who regulates, how prices or tariffs are set, the allowed return, the next review. | Prices are not regulated, and there is no allowed return or tariff review. The state intervenes through price caps, rules on dealings with retailers and farm subsidies.
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| Special taxes, state intervention, currency, country risk. | Country risk is high. Romania is rated Baa3, with a country risk premium of 2.85%, and the IMF projects a 0.5% fall in real GDP in 2026.
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| technology | |||
| The systems the business runs on (control, IT, automation): their state, cyber risk, obsolescence. | The reports do not describe the control, IT or automation systems, their age or cyber risk. Only food-safety certification (N374) and irrigation (N036) are mentioned. | ||
| For a technology-driven business: switching costs, network effects, proprietary data, R&D as investment, marginal cost of scale, retention. | This is not a technology-driven business. Capitalised development is almost fully amortised (N127), and none of the barriers rests on technology. | ||
| Age and condition of the physical assets, remaining life, deferred maintenance. | The factory is fairly new, but the machinery is old. Close to half of the buildings' cost and most of the machinery's cost are already used up.
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| market | |||
| What the price implies, liquidity, analyst coverage, why the market pays what it pays. | The price stands above the asset value, although nothing protects the earnings. Trading is thin, so the price is a weak benchmark. The research shows no analyst coverage.
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| Why the gap might never close. | The gap may never close because no barrier lifts returns above the cost of capital, and interest absorbs much of the operating profit.
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| decision | |||
| The facts that, if observed, would prove the conclusion wrong. | The conclusion that the price pays above what the business is worth would be wrong if earnings proved durable or the assets proved worth more than their base values.
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