Greggs plc GRG.L

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants · valued as of 2026-11-03 · statements 2025-12-31

Average Intrinsic Value
$1.77B
Market Cap
$2.78B
Margin of Safety
-57.0%
Intrinsic / Market Ratio
0.64

How Each Value Is Built

The screener's three formulas on the reported figures. Each card reads the same way: the value as a sum of numbered terms, each term's calculation opened under it, from the reported figures to the value. The list ranks companies by their plain average over the market cap.

EPV + Growth

1.60B USD

what the normal year's earnings are worth for ever, plus growth that pays

Profit

1.82B USD

15 years of cash the shareholders can take out, and the equity left at year 15

FCFF

1.90B USD

15 years of cash for shareholders and lenders, less what is owed

Intrinsic Value

1.77B USD

the plain average of the three, uncapped, as the screener averages them

Intrinsic Value

1.77B USD

from the sum above

Market Cap

2.78B USD

today's price times the shares

Intrinsic Value ÷ Market Cap

0.64×

the ratio the screener ranks by; Margin of Safety -57.0% (1 − Market Cap ÷ Intrinsic Value)

Each card below builds one of the three values from the reported years.

Earnings power value plus growth: 1.60B USD
What the normal year's operating profit after tax is worth if it lasts for ever, plus what the new investment adds beyond its cost, less the net debt that comes before the shareholders (or plus the net cash).
①EPV (earnings power value)2.15B USD
−②Net Debt Today544.62M USD
+③Growth Value0 USD
=Value1.60B USD

EPV of the Operations (NOPAT over WACC)

2.15B USD

Net debt today

-544.62M USD

Growth Value

0 USD

Value

1.60B USD

①EPV (earnings power value)

2.15B USD

②Net Debt Today

544.62M USD

③Growth Value

0 USD

Market value

Market Cap2.78B USD

Today's price times the shares.

Value vs market

Margin of Safety-73.5%

1 minus the market cap as a share of the value.

Profit value: today's value of the shareholders' equity, from the cash it can pay them (FCFE): 1.82B USD
Fifteen years of free cash flow to equity (FCFE), each brought to today at the cost of equity, plus the equity at year 15 brought to today.
①Present Value of the 15 Years of FCFE1.42B USD
+②Equity at Year 15, Today401.46M USD
=Value1.82B USD
FCFE: the net income left for the shareholders once the business keeps what next year's growth needsEquity reinvestment: the part of the year's net income kept in the business to grow the next year; below zero, capital the business releases to the shareholdersPresent value of the FCFEColoured bars show the FCFE, grey bars the equity reinvestment. With a positive equity reinvestment the two stacked are the year's normalized income; with a negative one the grey is below zero, capital the business releases, and the normalized income is the FCFE plus that negative amount. Shaded, years 6 to 10: the growth falling to its long-run rate and the ROE on new investment falling to the cost of equity. Axes linear.

①Present Value of the 15 Years of FCFE

1.42B USD

②Equity at Year 15, Today

401.46M USD

Market value

Market Cap2.78B USD

Today's price times the shares.

Value vs market

Margin of Safety-53.1%

1 minus the market cap as a share of the value.

FCFF value: today's value of the shareholders' equity, from the cash the firm can pay its shareholders and lenders (FCFF): 1.90B USD
Fifteen years of free cash flow to the firm (FCFF), each brought to today at the WACC, plus the invested capital at year 15 brought to today, less the net debt today (or plus the net cash).
①Present Value of the 15 Years of FCFF1.61B USD
+②Invested Capital at Year 15, Today830.71M USD
−③Net Debt Today544.62M USD
=Value1.90B USD
FCFF: the NOPAT left for the shareholders and the lenders once the business reinvests what next year's growth needsReinvestment: the part of the year's NOPAT put back into the business to grow the next year; below zero, capital the business releasesPresent value of the FCFFColoured bars show the FCFF, grey bars the reinvestment. With a positive reinvestment the two stacked are the year's NOPAT; with a negative one the grey is below zero, capital the business releases, and the NOPAT is the FCFF plus that negative amount. Shaded, years 6 to 10: the growth falling to its long-run rate and the ROIC on new investment falling to the WACC. Axes linear.

①Present Value of the 15 Years of FCFF

1.61B USD

②Invested Capital at Year 15, Today

830.71M USD

③Net Debt Today

544.62M USD

Market value

Market Cap2.78B USD

Today's price times the shares.

Value vs market

Margin of Safety-46.7%

1 minus the market cap as a share of the value.

The Rates and the Capital the Values Read

The WACC and the cost of equity each value is discounted at, the book value and the net debt each starts from, and the seven quality metrics, from the same run.

WACC: 9.81%
weighted average cost of capital: the yearly return the shareholders and the lenders together require, weighted by what each puts in; the rate that brings the firm's future cash to today.
Cost of Equity =Risk-Free Rate 4.50%+Beta 1.16×Market Risk Premium 6.00%= 11.45%

The yearly return the shareholders require for the risk they carry; it is the rate that brings their future cash to today.

Tax Rate for WACC =Tax Provision 60.93M USDPretax Income 225.67M USD= 27.00%

The tax the interest saves.

Interest Expense =EBIT 248.99M USD−Pretax Income 225.67M USD= 23.32M USD

The interest the company paid: EBIT is the profit before tax plus the interest.

Cost of Debt =Interest Expense 23.32M USDTotal Debt 640.06M USD×(1 − Tax Rate for WACC 27.00%)= 2.66%

What the lenders are paid a year after the tax the interest saves.

Debt Weight =Total Debt 640.06M USDMarket Cap + Total Debt 2.78B USD + 640.06M USD= 18.71%

The part of the capital the lenders put in, at market value.

WACC =Equity Weight 81.29%×Cost of Equity 11.45%+Debt Weight 18.71%×Cost of Debt 2.66%= 9.81%

Weighted average cost of capital: the yearly return the shareholders and the lenders together require, weighted by what each puts in; the rate that brings the firm's future cash to today.

Book value and net debt today
Both from the balance sheet of the newest quarter, 2025-12-31.

Total Assets 2.00B USD − Total Liabilities 1.16B USD = Book Value Today 842.81M USD

Total Debt 640.06M USD − Cash and Short-Term Investments 95.44M USD = Net Debt Today 544.62M USD

The book value is what Profit starts from and what stands when a projection is not made; the book value plus the net debt is what FCFF starts from; the net debt comes off Greenwald's and FCFF's values before the shareholders.

Quality metrics
Read beside the value, never a condition for it: every company is valued, and a filter in the list is the reader's choice.
MetricFrom
Share dilutionShares Today ÷ Shares Two Years Back − 10.5%at most 5%passes101,955,014 / 101,480,123
Accrual quality(Operating Cash Flow − Net Income) ÷ Total Assets14.5%at least -10.0%passes(454.30M USD − 164.73M USD) ÷ 2.00B USD
Price to bookMarket Cap ÷ Book Value Today3.30×at most 3×does not pass2.78B USD ÷ 842.81M USD
Operating marginOperating Income ÷ Revenue8.7%above 10.0%does not pass252.76M USD ÷ 2.90B USD
Revenue growthRevenue ÷ Revenue a Year Before − 114.6%above 10.0%passes2.90B USD / 2.53B USD
Net cash(Cash − Total Debt) ÷ Market Cap-19.6%above -30%passes(95.44M USD − 640.06M USD) ÷ 2.78B USD
Operating efficiencyOperating Income ÷ Gross Profit14.2%above 25.0%does not pass252.76M USD ÷ 1.78B USD

Market Data

The provider's ratios and the analysts' consensus beside the argument; none of them enters a value.

Market data
The data provider's own ratios and the analysts' consensus, read beside the valuation, never in it.

Share price

2.04K USD

Enterprise value

2.47B USD

market cap plus net debt

EV / EBITDA

8.03×

Price / book

3.29×

the provider's book

Price / earnings

15.80×

Return on equity

21.9%

the provider's, not the engine's

Profit margin

5.9%

Revenue growth

7.2%

Analyst target, mean

1.89K USD

Analysts

16

opinions in the consensus

Financial Statements

The income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow the screener holds, year by year, in USD.

Financial statements, year by year
The annual lines the screener holds today, in USD at each period's rate; the figures this valuation read are in its calculation above.
USD2022202320242025
Income statement

Revenue

1.83B2.31B2.53B2.90B

Gross profit

1.13B1.40B1.56B1.78B

Operating income

186.34M218.86M245.33M252.76M

EBITDA

operating income before depreciation and amortisation

327.42M412.48M449.46M465.49M

Pretax income

178.97M240.02M256.13M225.67M

Net income

145.18M181.64M192.70M164.73M

Normalized income

net income without one-off items, as the data provider prints it; Profit's line when printed

145.18M161.76M179.37M169.16M

R&D

————
Balance sheet, year end

Total assets

1.18B1.44B1.66B2.00B

Total liabilities

637.69M763.27M941.12M1.16B

Shareholders' equity

the equity the parent's shareholders own, as printed, without minority interest; the book value the values read is total assets less total liabilities, in Book Value and Net Debt above

538.25M676.72M716.64M842.81M

Total debt

363.62M407.39M521.43M640.06M

Cash and equivalents

231.23M248.94M157.40M95.44M

Net PP&E

fixed assets after depreciation

810.51M1.03B1.32B1.68B

Working capital

current assets less current liabilities

46.95M32.38M-84.54M-204.64M
Cash flow

Operating cash flow

303.52M396.17M400.21M454.30M

Capital expenditure

paid out, so below zero

-124.67M-252.51M-302.61M-384.74M

Depreciation and amortisation

139.39M159.33M175.86M216.50M

Free cash flow

operating cash flow plus capital expenditure

178.85M143.66M97.60M69.56M