The GEO Group, Inc. GEO

Industrials · Security & Protection Services · valued as of 2026-11-03 · statements 2025-12-31

Average Intrinsic Value
$1.37B
Market Cap
$3.55B
Margin of Safety
-159.8%
Intrinsic / Market Ratio
0.39

How Each Value Is Built

The screener's three formulas on the reported figures. Each card reads the same way: the value as a sum of numbered terms, each term's calculation opened under it, from the reported figures to the value. The list ranks companies by their plain average over the market cap.

EPV + Growth

1.56B USD

what the normal year's earnings are worth for ever, plus growth that pays

Profit

1.38B USD

15 years of cash the shareholders can take out, and the equity left at year 15

FCFF

1.16B USD

15 years of cash for shareholders and lenders, less what is owed

Intrinsic Value

1.37B USD

the plain average of the three, uncapped, as the screener averages them

Intrinsic Value

1.37B USD

from the sum above

Market Cap

3.55B USD

today's price times the shares

Intrinsic Value ÷ Market Cap

0.39×

the ratio the screener ranks by; Margin of Safety -159.8% (1 − Market Cap ÷ Intrinsic Value)

Each card below builds one of the three values from the reported years.

Earnings power value plus growth: 1.56B USD
What the normal year's operating profit after tax is worth if it lasts for ever, plus what the new investment adds beyond its cost, less the net debt that comes before the shareholders (or plus the net cash).
①EPV (earnings power value)3.11B USD
−②Net Debt Today1.55B USD
+③Growth Value0 USD
=Value1.56B USD

EPV of the Operations (NOPAT over WACC)

3.11B USD

Net debt today

-1.55B USD

Growth Value

0 USD

Value

1.56B USD

①EPV (earnings power value)

3.11B USD

②Net Debt Today

1.55B USD

③Growth Value

0 USD

Market value

Market Cap3.55B USD

Today's price times the shares.

Value vs market

Margin of Safety-127.6%

1 minus the market cap as a share of the value.

Profit value: today's value of the shareholders' equity, from the cash it can pay them (FCFE): 1.38B USD
Fifteen years of free cash flow to equity (FCFE), each brought to today at the cost of equity, plus the equity at year 15 brought to today.
①Present Value of the 15 Years of FCFE700.04M USD
+②Equity at Year 15, Today677.22M USD
=Value1.38B USD
FCFE: the net income left for the shareholders once the business keeps what next year's growth needsEquity reinvestment: the part of the year's net income kept in the business to grow the next year; below zero, capital the business releases to the shareholdersPresent value of the FCFEColoured bars show the FCFE, grey bars the equity reinvestment. With a positive equity reinvestment the two stacked are the year's normalized income; with a negative one the grey is below zero, capital the business releases, and the normalized income is the FCFE plus that negative amount. Shaded, years 6 to 10: the growth falling to its long-run rate and the ROE on new investment rising to the cost of equity. Axes linear.

①Present Value of the 15 Years of FCFE

700.04M USD

②Equity at Year 15, Today

677.22M USD

Market value

Market Cap3.55B USD

Today's price times the shares.

Value vs market

Margin of Safety-157.7%

1 minus the market cap as a share of the value.

FCFF value: today's value of the shareholders' equity, from the cash the firm can pay its shareholders and lenders (FCFF): 1.16B USD
Fifteen years of free cash flow to the firm (FCFF), each brought to today at the WACC, plus the invested capital at year 15 brought to today, less the net debt today (or plus the net cash).
①Present Value of the 15 Years of FCFF1.61B USD
+②Invested Capital at Year 15, Today1.11B USD
−③Net Debt Today1.55B USD
=Value1.16B USD
FCFF: the NOPAT left for the shareholders and the lenders once the business reinvests what next year's growth needsReinvestment: the part of the year's NOPAT put back into the business to grow the next year; below zero, capital the business releasesPresent value of the FCFFColoured bars show the FCFF, grey bars the reinvestment. With a positive reinvestment the two stacked are the year's NOPAT; with a negative one the grey is below zero, capital the business releases, and the NOPAT is the FCFF plus that negative amount. Shaded, years 6 to 10: the growth rising to its long-run rate and the ROIC on new investment rising to the WACC. Axes linear.

①Present Value of the 15 Years of FCFF

1.61B USD

②Invested Capital at Year 15, Today

1.11B USD

③Net Debt Today

1.55B USD

Market value

Market Cap3.55B USD

Today's price times the shares.

Value vs market

Margin of Safety-205.3%

1 minus the market cap as a share of the value.

The Rates and the Capital the Values Read

The WACC and the cost of equity each value is discounted at, the book value and the net debt each starts from, and the seven quality metrics, from the same run.

WACC: 8.60%
weighted average cost of capital: the yearly return the shareholders and the lenders together require, weighted by what each puts in; the rate that brings the firm's future cash to today.
Cost of Equity =Risk-Free Rate 4.50%+Beta 0.77×Market Risk Premium 6.00%= 9.13%

The yearly return the shareholders require for the risk they carry; it is the rate that brings their future cash to today.

Tax Rate for WACC =Tax Provision 85.81M USDPretax Income 335.83M USD= 25.55%

The tax the interest saves.

Interest Expense =EBIT 496.51M USD−Pretax Income 335.83M USD= 160.68M USD

The interest the company paid: EBIT is the profit before tax plus the interest.

Cost of Debt =Interest Expense 160.68M USDTotal Debt 1.61B USD×(1 − Tax Rate for WACC 25.55%)= 7.44%

What the lenders are paid a year after the tax the interest saves.

Debt Weight =Total Debt 1.61B USDMarket Cap + Total Debt 3.55B USD + 1.61B USD= 31.19%

The part of the capital the lenders put in, at market value.

WACC =Equity Weight 68.81%×Cost of Equity 9.13%+Debt Weight 31.19%×Cost of Debt 7.44%= 8.60%

Weighted average cost of capital: the yearly return the shareholders and the lenders together require, weighted by what each puts in; the rate that brings the firm's future cash to today.

Book value and net debt today
Both from the balance sheet of the newest quarter, 2026-06-30.

Total Assets 3.75B USD − Total Liabilities 2.23B USD = Book Value Today 1.52B USD

Total Debt 1.61B USD − Cash and Short-Term Investments 55.05M USD = Net Debt Today 1.55B USD

The book value is what Profit starts from and what stands when a projection is not made; the book value plus the net debt is what FCFF starts from; the net debt comes off Greenwald's and FCFF's values before the shareholders.

Quality metrics
Read beside the value, never a condition for it: every company is valued, and a filter in the list is the reader's choice.
MetricFrom
Share dilutionShares Today ÷ Shares Two Years Back − 14.9%at most 5%passes132,284,930 / 126,087,401
Accrual quality(Operating Cash Flow − Net Income) ÷ Total Assets-4.9%at least -10.0%passes(72.68M USD − 254.63M USD) ÷ 3.75B USD
Price to bookMarket Cap ÷ Book Value Today2.34×at most 3×passes3.55B USD ÷ 1.52B USD
Operating marginOperating Income ÷ Revenue11.2%above 10.0%passes295.39M USD ÷ 2.63B USD
Revenue growthRevenue ÷ Revenue a Year Before − 18.6%above 10.0%does not pass2.63B USD / 2.43B USD
Net cash(Cash − Total Debt) ÷ Market Cap-43.8%above -30%does not pass(55.05M USD − 1.61B USD) ÷ 3.55B USD
Operating efficiencyOperating Income ÷ Gross Profit—above 25.0%not measured295.39M USD ÷ 0 USD

Market Data

The provider's ratios and the analysts' consensus beside the argument; none of them enters a value.

Market data
The data provider's own ratios and the analysts' consensus, read beside the valuation, never in it.

Share price

27 USD

Enterprise value

5.04B USD

market cap plus net debt

EV / EBITDA

10.26×

Price / book

2.31×

the provider's book

Price / earnings

12.65×

Return on equity

20.1%

the provider's, not the engine's

Profit margin

10.3%

Revenue growth

15.1%

Analyst target, mean

39 USD

Analysts

4

opinions in the consensus

Financial Statements

The income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow the screener holds, year by year, in USD.

Financial statements, year by year
The annual lines the screener holds today, in USD at each period's rate; the figures this valuation read are in its calculation above.
USD2022202320242025
Income statement

Revenue

2.38B2.42B2.43B2.63B

Gross profit

714.56M669.61M——

Operating income

384.33M352.74M310.28M295.39M

EBITDA

operating income before depreciation and amortisation

527.82M482.61M355.79M628.68M

Pretax income

230.05M138.19M38.63M335.83M

Net income

171.98M107.43M32.00M254.63M

Normalized income

net income without one-off items, as the data provider prints it; Profit's line when printed

176.03M110.29M99.76M115.85M

R&D

————
Balance sheet, year end

Total assets

3.76B3.70B3.64B3.85B

Total liabilities

2.60B2.41B2.30B2.34B

Shareholders' equity

the equity the parent's shareholders own, as printed, without minority interest; the book value the values read is total assets less total liabilities, in Book Value and Net Debt above

1.17B1.29B1.34B1.51B

Total debt

2.08B1.89B1.81B1.73B

Cash and equivalents

95.17M94.06M76.97M69.06M

Net PP&E

fixed assets after depreciation

2.10B2.05B2.00B1.96B

Working capital

current assets less current liabilities

117.91M91.13M160.12M362.00M
Cash flow

Operating cash flow

288.27M278.06M242.48M72.68M

Capital expenditure

paid out, so below zero

-90.12M-73.08M-78.77M-197.71M

Depreciation and amortisation

133.06M125.91M126.35M132.17M

Free cash flow

operating cash flow plus capital expenditure

198.15M204.98M163.71M-125.03M