First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. FWRG

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants · valued as of 2026-11-03 · statements 2025-12-31

Average Intrinsic Value
$151.10M
Market Cap
$672.72M
Margin of Safety
-345.2%
Intrinsic / Market Ratio
0.22

How Each Value Is Built

The screener's three formulas on the reported figures. Each card reads the same way: the value as a sum of numbered terms, each term's calculation opened under it, from the reported figures to the value. The list ranks companies by their plain average over the market cap.

EPV + Growth

-443.74M USD

what the normal year's earnings are worth for ever, plus growth that pays

Profit

262.24M USD

15 years of cash the shareholders can take out, and the equity left at year 15

FCFF

634.80M USD

15 years of cash for shareholders and lenders, less what is owed

Intrinsic Value

151.10M USD

the plain average of the three, uncapped, as the screener averages them

Intrinsic Value

151.10M USD

from the sum above

Market Cap

672.72M USD

today's price times the shares

Intrinsic Value ÷ Market Cap

0.22×

the ratio the screener ranks by; Margin of Safety -345.2% (1 − Market Cap ÷ Intrinsic Value)

Each card below builds one of the three values from the reported years.

Earnings power value plus growth: -443.74M USD
What the normal year's operating profit after tax is worth if it lasts for ever, plus what the new investment adds beyond its cost, less the net debt that comes before the shareholders (or plus the net cash).
①EPV (earnings power value)610.28M USD
−②Net Debt Today1.05B USD
+③Growth Value0 USD
=Value-443.74M USD

EPV of the Operations (NOPAT over WACC)

610.28M USD

Net debt today

-1.05B USD

Growth Value

0 USD

Value

-443.74M USD

①EPV (earnings power value)

610.28M USD

②Net Debt Today

1.05B USD

③Growth Value

0 USD

Market value

Market Cap672.72M USD

Today's price times the shares.

Value vs market

Margin of Safety—

1 minus the market cap as a share of the value.

Profit value: today's value of the shareholders' equity, from the cash it can pay them (FCFE): 262.24M USD
Fifteen years of free cash flow to equity (FCFE), each brought to today at the cost of equity, plus the equity at year 15 brought to today.
①Present Value of the 15 Years of FCFE85.90M USD
+②Equity at Year 15, Today176.34M USD
=Value262.24M USD
FCFE: the net income left for the shareholders once the business keeps what next year's growth needsEquity reinvestment: the part of the year's net income kept in the business to grow the next year; below zero, capital the business releases to the shareholdersPresent value of the FCFEColoured bars show the FCFE, grey bars the equity reinvestment. With a positive equity reinvestment the two stacked are the year's normalized income; with a negative one the grey is below zero, capital the business releases, and the normalized income is the FCFE plus that negative amount. Shaded, years 6 to 10: the growth falling to its long-run rate and the ROE on new investment rising to the cost of equity. Axes linear.

①Present Value of the 15 Years of FCFE

85.90M USD

②Equity at Year 15, Today

176.34M USD

Market value

Market Cap672.72M USD

Today's price times the shares.

Value vs market

Margin of Safety-156.5%

1 minus the market cap as a share of the value.

FCFF value: today's value of the shareholders' equity, from the cash the firm can pay its shareholders and lenders (FCFF): 634.80M USD
Fifteen years of free cash flow to the firm (FCFF), each brought to today at the WACC, plus the invested capital at year 15 brought to today, less the net debt today (or plus the net cash).

The projection was not made (an FCFF at or below zero in the latest three years), so the value is the book value today, 634.80M USD, as the screener leaves it.

①Present Value of the 15 Years of FCFF

Not in the value

②Invested Capital at Year 15, Today

Not in the value

③Net Debt Today

Not in the value

Market value

Market Cap672.72M USD

Today's price times the shares.

Value vs market

Margin of Safety-6.0%

1 minus the market cap as a share of the value.

The Rates and the Capital the Values Read

The WACC and the cost of equity each value is discounted at, the book value and the net debt each starts from, and the seven quality metrics, from the same run.

WACC: 4.88%
weighted average cost of capital: the yearly return the shareholders and the lenders together require, weighted by what each puts in; the rate that brings the firm's future cash to today.
Cost of Equity =Risk-Free Rate 4.50%+Beta 1.05×Market Risk Premium 6.00%= 10.82%

The yearly return the shareholders require for the risk they carry; it is the rate that brings their future cash to today.

Tax Rate for WACC 25.00% (default): the statements print a tax provision of -7.31M USD on a pretax income of 12.15M USD, which gives no rate between 0 and the profit before tax, so the 25% default stands for the tax the interest saves.

Interest Expense =EBIT 28.86M USD−Pretax Income 12.15M USD= 16.72M USD

The interest the company paid: EBIT is the profit before tax plus the interest.

Cost of Debt =Interest Expense 16.72M USDTotal Debt 1.07B USD×(1 − Tax Rate for WACC 25.00%)= 1.17%

What the lenders are paid a year after the tax the interest saves.

Debt Weight =Total Debt 1.07B USDMarket Cap + Total Debt 672.72M USD + 1.07B USD= 61.50%

The part of the capital the lenders put in, at market value.

WACC =Equity Weight 38.50%×Cost of Equity 10.82%+Debt Weight 61.50%×Cost of Debt 1.17%= 4.88%

Weighted average cost of capital: the yearly return the shareholders and the lenders together require, weighted by what each puts in; the rate that brings the firm's future cash to today.

Book value and net debt today
Both from the balance sheet of the newest quarter, 2026-06-30.

Total Assets 1.82B USD − Total Liabilities 1.19B USD = Book Value Today 634.80M USD

Total Debt 1.07B USD − Cash and Short-Term Investments 20.51M USD = Net Debt Today 1.05B USD

The book value is what Profit starts from and what stands when a projection is not made; the book value plus the net debt is what FCFF starts from; the net debt comes off Greenwald's and FCFF's values before the shareholders.

Quality metrics
Read beside the value, never a condition for it: every company is valued, and a filter in the list is the reader's choice.
MetricFrom
Share dilutionShares Today ÷ Shares Two Years Back − 13.0%at most 5%passes61,712,435 / 59,891,705
Accrual quality(Operating Cash Flow − Net Income) ÷ Total Assets5.8%at least -10.0%passes(126.04M USD − 19.45M USD) ÷ 1.82B USD
Price to bookMarket Cap ÷ Book Value Today1.06×at most 3×passes672.72M USD ÷ 634.80M USD
Operating marginOperating Income ÷ Revenue2.5%above 10.0%does not pass30.52M USD ÷ 1.22B USD
Revenue growthRevenue ÷ Revenue a Year Before − 120.3%above 10.0%passes1.22B USD / 1.02B USD
Net cash(Cash − Total Debt) ÷ Market Cap-156.7%above -30%does not pass(20.51M USD − 1.07B USD) ÷ 672.72M USD
Operating efficiencyOperating Income ÷ Gross Profit13.0%above 25.0%does not pass30.52M USD ÷ 234.69M USD

Market Data

The provider's ratios and the analysts' consensus beside the argument; none of them enters a value.

Market data
The data provider's own ratios and the analysts' consensus, read beside the valuation, never in it.

Share price

11 USD

Enterprise value

1.73B USD

market cap plus net debt

EV / EBITDA

14.82×

Price / book

1.06×

the provider's book

Price / earnings

38.89×

Return on equity

2.9%

the provider's, not the engine's

Profit margin

1.4%

Revenue growth

15.2%

Analyst target, mean

19 USD

Analysts

10

opinions in the consensus

Financial Statements

The income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow the screener holds, year by year, in USD.

Financial statements, year by year
The annual lines the screener holds today, in USD at each period's rate; the figures this valuation read are in its calculation above.
USD2022202320242025
Income statement

Revenue

730.89M892.44M1.02B1.22B

Gross profit

139.67M190.31M213.22M234.69M

Operating income

20.37M45.82M42.06M30.52M

EBITDA

operating income before depreciation and amortisation

52.11M85.45M98.48M103.95M

Pretax income

12.60M36.11M28.05M12.15M

Net income

6.91M25.41M18.94M19.45M

Normalized income

net income without one-off items, as the data provider prints it; Profit's line when printed

9.63M28.59M21.05M21.81M

R&D

————
Balance sheet, year end

Total assets

1.11B1.27B1.52B1.74B

Total liabilities

581.89M706.47M919.89M1.12B

Shareholders' equity

the equity the parent's shareholders own, as printed, without minority interest; the book value the values read is total assets less total liabilities, in Book Value and Net Debt above

523.66M561.85M595.98M626.91M

Total debt

507.86M607.57M810.36M1.01B

Cash and equivalents

49.72M49.68M33.35M21.27M

Net PP&E

fixed assets after depreciation

548.04M683.77M889.96M1.09B

Working capital

current assets less current liabilities

-32.72M-43.93M-82.68M-118.54M
Cash flow

Operating cash flow

63.00M95.43M115.79M126.04M

Capital expenditure

paid out, so below zero

-63.39M-83.57M-128.14M-157.91M

Depreciation and amortisation

34.26M41.26M57.77M75.09M

Free cash flow

operating cash flow plus capital expenditure

-393.39K11.86M-12.35M-31.88M