CF Industries Holdings, Inc. CF
Basic Materials · annual report 2025-12-31 · 6 reported years · figures in USD
Market Cap
18.31B USD
Price on 2026-10-27
Average of the Three Values
22.74B USD
1.24× the Market Cap
Margin of Safety (Average)
+19.5%
1 − Market Cap / value
Price / Book
3.78×
Market Cap / Book Value as printed (4.84B)
Greenwald Value, Case C: Earnings Power
25.05B USD
Protected franchise · +26.9%
Price vs Value
Every value of the company against what the market pays for it today.
Bottom line
CF Industries has an intrinsic value of 22.72B USD against a market cap of 18.29B USD, a margin of safety of 19.5%. The verdict holds unless Profit and FCFF fall below 63.8% of their projected values, so the projections can fall by 36.2% before the price stops being covered. Greenwald's value on the company's case is the earnings power value of 25.02B USD (a margin of safety of 26.9%), shown here as a reading beside the verdict. The weak point is that case C reads as a franchise, yet the reports find no barrier to entry in a commodity business, so the earnings power may not last.Book Value
Assets less liabilities, as printed
Asset Value
What an entrant would spend to reproduce the assets, less what is owed
EPV + Growth Value
From the report's figures
Profit
From the report's figures
17% capital at year 15 · 83% 15 years of profit
FCFF
From the report's figures
26% capital at year 15 · 74% 15 years of free cash flow, before the net cash or net debt
Average of the Three
Uncapped, as the screener averages them
Greenwald Value, Case C: Earnings Power
The value Greenwald assigns on this case
How Each Value Is Built
The screener's three formulas on the report's own figures. Each card reads the same way: the value as a sum of numbered terms, each term's calculation opened under it, from the reported figures to the value. The verdict rests on their plain average, as the screener ranks; the Greenwald value on the company's case is a reading beside it.
EPV + Growth
31.45B USD
what the normal year's earnings are worth for ever, plus growth that pays
Profit
20.09B USD
15 years of cash the shareholders can take out, and the equity left at year 15
FCFF
16.69B USD
15 years of cash for shareholders and lenders, less what is owed
Intrinsic Value
22.74B USD
the plain average of the three, uncapped, as the screener averages them
Intrinsic Value
22.74B USD
from the sum above
Market Cap
18.31B USD
today's price times the shares
Intrinsic Value ÷ Market Cap
1.24×
the ratio the screener ranks by; Margin of Safety +19.5% (1 − Market Cap ÷ Intrinsic Value)
Each card below builds one of the three values from the reported years.
EPV of the Operations (NOPAT over WACC)
32.42B USD
Net Debt and Claims Ahead of the Shareholders
-7.38B USD
Growth Value
+6.40B USD
Value
31.45B USD
①EPV of the Equity
25.05B USD②Growth Value
6.40B USDMarket value
Today's price times the shares.
Value vs market
1 minus the market cap as a share of the value.
①Present Value of the 15 Years of FCFE
16.67B USD②Equity at Year 15, Today
3.42B USDMarket value
Today's price times the shares.
Value vs market
1 minus the market cap as a share of the value.
①Present Value of the 15 Years of FCFF
17.71B USD②Invested Capital at Year 15, Today
6.36B USD③Net Debt and Claims Ahead of the Shareholders
-7.38B USDMarket value
Today's price times the shares.
Value vs market
1 minus the market cap as a share of the value.
26.95B USD
Average on the reported years
EPV + Growth Value, Profit and FCFF on the years as reported
+1.36B USD
Acquisitions read as reinvestment
FCFF +4.08B USD
-5.70B USD
Growth basis chosen
Profit -15.18B USD, FCFF -1.93B USD
+141.06M USD
Growth by five-year blocks
Profit +175.55M USD, FCFF +247.62M USD
22.74B USD
Intrinsic value
the average the verdict rests on
- Acquisitions: counted as reinvestment, since buying a business is capital spending like building one: 1.22B USD in 2023, 2.00M USD in 2024, from Purchase of Waggaman ammonia production facility.
Profit growth: the stable rate (2.0% a year for years 1 to 5, lowered from the reported years' fundamental growth of 16.1%).
FCFF growth: the stable rate (2.0% a year for years 1 to 5, lowered from the reported years' fundamental growth of 4.3%).
Set by the analyst: Sales volume was flat at 18.3 to 19.1 million product tons in 2021 to 2025 (sales volume by product tons, N020 and N340: 18,501, 18,331, 19,130, 18,943, 19,057), so the reported years earned their swings from the price of nitrogen, not from growth: the 2022 earnings (3.9B against 1.3B in 2021) are a price spike. Ahead, nitrogen demand grows about 1% a year to 2030 (IFA, R029), and Blue Point adds CF's 40% of 1.4 million tons from 2029 (R012, R013), about 5% of its 10.4 million tons of ammonia capacity (N021) once, in 2029, not a yearly rate. The stable growth rate is what the business supports.
Profit growth by five-year blocks: years 1 to 5 2.0%, years 6 to 10 2.0%, years 11 to 15 2.0%, years 1 to 5’s own, already below the risk-free rate. The return on new capital falls by year 10 to 12.7%, the average return on capital of the Agricultural Inputs industry in US, 30 companies, 1989 to 2025.
FCFF growth by five-year blocks: years 1 to 5 2.0%, years 6 to 10 2.0%, years 11 to 15 2.0%, years 1 to 5’s own, already below the risk-free rate. The return on new capital falls by year 10 to 14.4%, the average return on capital of the Agricultural Inputs industry in US, 30 companies, 1989 to 2025.
Earnings Power vs Assets
Does the business earn more than it would cost to rebuild? Greenwald's test for a moat.
Asset Value
What a newcomer would spend to rebuild it, less what it owes; the bar runs from every asset at the cautious end of its inputs to every asset at the generous end (see Adjusted Balance Sheet)
571.57M – 10.64B
Earnings Power Value
What the business earns, as if it never grew
25.05B USD
Market Cap
What the market pays for all the shares
18.31B USD
Logarithmic axis: 0.80× and 1.25× are the same distance from 1×.
Case A: The Assets Earn Too Little
The business earns less than it would cost to rebuild. A newcomer would not build it, so the value is what it earns, not what its assets cost.
Case B: A Normal Business
It earns about what its assets cost to rebuild: no moat and no penalty. The value is the asset value.
Case C: Something Protects It (This Company)
It earns well above what its assets cost. Something keeps newcomers out, and that franchise is worth the difference.
Franchise value
Earnings power value less asset value: what a moat is worth, negative when there is none.
18.55B USD
Bear
The bear case rests on the asset value of 6.49B USD (range 571.00M USD to 10.63B USD).
Base
The base case is what the reported years support: Greenwald's value on case C, the earnings power value of 25.02B USD.
Bull
The bull case rests on the intrinsic value of 22.72B USD, the plain average of three values.
Expected Return
What a buyer at today's price earns a year if the business holds: cash returned, organic growth and reinvestment, against the cost of equity.
8.5%
Cash Returned
Earnings Power less the cost of today's debt after tax (its rate × the debt), 2.09B USD, × 74.7% paid out, over the market cap
2.5%
Organic Growth
The stable growth the analysis chose, 2.0% a year, in place of the printed revenue growth of 19.6% the growth basis sets aside, × value over price of 1.24
11.6%
Reinvestment
490.96M USD kept beyond what organic growth needs × 4.33 of value created per unit, over the market cap
22.6%
Expected Return a Year
At value equal to price: 22.2%
Against a cost of equity of 7.4%: above it by 15.3%. That is how much of the return the franchise may lose before it earns only its cost.
Paid out: the reported years' dividends and the buybacks beyond the shares issued, over net income, averaged. Value created per unit: the return on capital over the cost of equity. Working capital per unit of revenue: 26.8%.
What Comes Next
Dated events ahead that can matter to a holder, each with the quote that dates it.
- 2026Canadian GHG regulations reviewed at federal and provincial levelRegulation
Downside for holders
The review could increase the costs the Canadian facilities incur for excess emissions.
- 2027Yazoo City complex expected to resume UAN and urea liquor productionOperations
Upside for holders
The site has been idle since the November 2025 incident, so restarting it brings back lost volumes and earnings.
- 2027EU CBAM certificates must be purchased for nitrogen fertilizer importsRegulation
Either way for holders
Importers into the EU will pay for embedded carbon emissions, which changes export economics and favours low-carbon ammonia.
- 1 Jan 2027PLNL gas sales contract with NGC expiresContract or concession
Either way for holders
Gas supply to the Trinidad joint venture after expiry needs a new contract, and without gas at profitable prices PLNL may stop operating and the remaining investment would be written off.
- 2028Yazoo City carbon capture and sequestration expected to startOperations
Upside for holders
Sequestering up to approximately 500,000 metric tons of CO2 a year would earn 45Q tax credits and support low-carbon product sales.
- 2029Blue Point low-carbon ammonia production expected to beginOperations
Upside for holders
The plant with nameplate capacity of approximately 1.4 million metric tons starts generating cash flows, of which the company holds 40%.
- 31 Dec 20292025 Share Repurchase Program of up to $2 billion runs through year endDividends and buybacks
Upside for holders
Continued buybacks under the authorization keep reducing the share count.
- 2030Canadian excess emissions fee reaches CAD $170 per metric tonRegulation
Downside for holders
The rising carbon price increases operating costs at the Medicine Hat and Courtright plants.
- 6 Jan 2031EU antidumping duties on U.S. UAN extended through this dateRegulation
Either way for holders
The duties limit the company's EU export access for UAN until they expire or are renewed.
Earnings Power, Step by Step
Average margin on sustainable revenue, average tax, depreciation above maintenance CapEx.
From Revenue to the Value of the Operations
7.09B USD
Latest Revenue
34.0%
Average Operating Margin, Latest 5 Reported Years
2.41B USD
Sustainable Operating Profit
19.0%
Average Tax Rate
270.99M USD
Depreciation Above Maintenance CapEx, After Tax
2.22B USD
Earnings Power (NOPAT)
6.9%
Cost of Capital (WACC)
32.42B USD
EPV of the Operations
Cost of equity: 5% the 10-year government bond in USD + beta 0.53 (the market's) × 4.46% the country's equity risk premium = 7.35%, in the currency of the figures it discounts.
Cost of debt after tax: interest of 155.15M USD over the year's average debt of 3.10B USD, less tax at 19.0% = 4.06%. Weighted 85.05% equity at the market cap, 14.95% debt: 6.86%.
The screener's rate, a check: 6.26%.
From the Operations to the Shareholders
EPV of the Operations
32.42B USD
Free Cash
cash the company may use freely; 130.13M restricted left out
+1.85B USD
Assets the Business Does Not Need
Stake in PLNL (Trinidad)
+32.03M USD
Debt
financial debt and leases
-3.13B USD
Claims Ahead of the Shareholders
minority interests, a dividend already declared
-5.60B USD
Legacy Liabilities
pensions, lawsuits, environment: inherited from the past
-527.53M USD
EPV of the Equity
25.05B USD
21 of 25 cells are above the price: the EPV of the equity depends on the assumptions.
EPV of the equity in USD; the outlined cell is the analysis's own. Green above the market cap (18.31B), red below.
Returns, Payouts and Debt
What each reported year earned, paid to shareholders and owed, as the report prints it, before any adjustment.
Return on Capital, 2025
28.9%
operating profit after tax over book plus net debt
Dividend Yield
1.8%
the latest year's dividends over today's market cap
Paid Out in All, 2025
94.0%
dividends and the buybacks beyond the shares issued, over profit
Net Debt over EBITDA, 2025
0.4×
years of operating profit before depreciation to repay it
Dividend policy: The company pays a quarterly cash dividend, which the Board raised in July 2026 to $0.60 per common share from $0.50; dividends declared were $2.00 per share in 2025. It also returns cash through buybacks under the 2025 Share Repurchase Program of up to $2 billion, effective through December 31, 2029.
2034
750.75M USD
5.150% senior notes due March 2034
2035
1.00B USD
5.300% senior notes due 2035
Lenders' conditions
- The revolving credit facility requires a total net leverage ratio no greater than 3.75:1.00 (or 4.25:1.00 for four fiscal quarters after certain material acquisitions) at each quarter end; at December 31, 2025 the company was in compliance and the $750 million facility was undrawn.
- The senior notes indentures limit liens securing debt, sale and leaseback transactions, mergers and transfers of substantially all assets, with no financial maintenance covenants; the company was in compliance at December 31, 2025.
- On a change of control repurchase event the company must offer to repurchase the Public Senior Notes at 101% of principal plus accrued interest.
Who Owns It
Every holder of 5% or more of the capital the reports and the research name (5% is the share at which holders must disclose), then the rest of the capital.
The Vanguard Group
Fund or institution
15.7%
BlackRock, Inc.
Fund or institution
8.3%
T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc.
Fund or institution
5.2%
State Street Corporation
Fund or institution
5.1%
The rest of the capital
holders the reports and the research do not name
65.7%
Peers
The company against listings in the same industry: how the market prices them, what they earn.
Agricultural Inputs in the screener: 12 of 33, the same market first, then the closest in size. The company's own figures are from its report (2025): net income over the printed book value, operating profit over revenue.
In Our Strategy
Where the screener ranks the company and whether the strategy would buy it.
Not in what the strategy buys
Place 211 of 2,309 by value in its market (US). The strategy buys the first 25.
Place 1 is the cheapest: the highest value over market cap. Only companies above their market's floor count, $1B in every market and $500M in Romania, and a company listed in several markets counts once.
Adjusted Balance Sheet
From the book value the balance sheet prints to the asset value a buyer would count.
Book Value
assets less liabilities, as printed
4.84B USD
Property, plant and equipment—net (amount related to VIE—2025: $361)
+2.95B USD
Goodwill
-2.50B USD
Long-term debt
+84.08M USD
Organisation
not in the balance sheet
+1.09B USD
Trained workforce
not in the balance sheet
+290.29M USD
Unrecorded conditional asset retirement obligations
not in the balance sheet
-142.14M USD
Restricted cash (not the owners')
-130.13M USD
Asset Value
at reproduction, less what is owed
6.49B USD
Investor Checklist
The questions to ask of any business, answered from the reports and research, or marked unknown. Evidence: N is a note in the company's reports, F a line of its financial statements, R a fact from recent research; +n is n more sources.