Alaska Air Group, Inc. ALK

Industrials · Airlines · valued as of 2026-11-02 · statements 2025-12-31

Average Intrinsic Value
$4.39B
Market Cap
$3.95B
Margin of Safety
10.0%
Intrinsic / Market Ratio
1.11

How Each Value Is Built

The screener's three formulas on the reported figures. Each card reads the same way: the value as a sum of numbered terms, each term's calculation opened under it, from the reported figures to the value. The list ranks companies by their plain average over the market cap.

EPV + Growth

7.01B USD

what the normal year's earnings are worth for ever, plus growth that pays

Profit

2.49B USD

15 years of cash the shareholders can take out, and the equity left at year 15

FCFF

3.67B USD

15 years of cash for shareholders and lenders, less what is owed

Intrinsic Value

4.39B USD

the plain average of the three, uncapped, as the screener averages them

Intrinsic Value

4.39B USD

from the sum above

Market Cap

3.95B USD

today's price times the shares

Intrinsic Value ÷ Market Cap

1.11×

the ratio the screener ranks by; Margin of Safety +10.0% (1 − Market Cap ÷ Intrinsic Value)

Each card below builds one of the three values from the reported years.

Earnings power value plus growth: 7.01B USD
What the normal year's operating profit after tax is worth if it lasts for ever, plus what the new investment adds beyond its cost, less the net debt that comes before the shareholders (or plus the net cash).
①EPV (earnings power value)11.97B USD
−②Net Debt Today4.96B USD
+③Growth Value0 USD
=Value7.01B USD

EPV of the Operations (NOPAT over WACC)

11.97B USD

Net debt today

-4.96B USD

Growth Value

0 USD

Value

7.01B USD

①EPV (earnings power value)

11.97B USD

②Net Debt Today

4.96B USD

③Growth Value

0 USD

Market value

Market Cap3.95B USD

Today's price times the shares.

Value vs market

Margin of Safety+43.6%

1 minus the market cap as a share of the value.

Profit value: today's value of the shareholders' equity, from the cash it can pay them (FCFE): 2.49B USD
Fifteen years of free cash flow to equity (FCFE), each brought to today at the cost of equity, plus the equity at year 15 brought to today.
①Present Value of the 15 Years of FCFE1.67B USD
+②Equity at Year 15, Today821.74M USD
=Value2.49B USD
FCFE: the net income left for the shareholders once the business keeps what next year's growth needsEquity reinvestment: the part of the year's net income kept in the business to grow the next year; below zero, capital the business releases to the shareholdersPresent value of the FCFEColoured bars show the FCFE, grey bars the equity reinvestment. With a positive equity reinvestment the two stacked are the year's normalized income; with a negative one the grey is below zero, capital the business releases, and the normalized income is the FCFE plus that negative amount. Shaded, years 6 to 10: the growth falling to its long-run rate and the ROE on new investment rising to the cost of equity. Axes linear.

①Present Value of the 15 Years of FCFE

1.67B USD

②Equity at Year 15, Today

821.74M USD

Market value

Market Cap3.95B USD

Today's price times the shares.

Value vs market

Margin of Safety-58.6%

1 minus the market cap as a share of the value.

FCFF value: today's value of the shareholders' equity, from the cash the firm can pay its shareholders and lenders (FCFF): 3.67B USD
Fifteen years of free cash flow to the firm (FCFF), each brought to today at the WACC, plus the invested capital at year 15 brought to today, less the net debt today (or plus the net cash).

The projection was not made (a change in working capital above half the operating profit in the latest three years), so the value is the book value today, 3.67B USD, as the screener leaves it.

①Present Value of the 15 Years of FCFF

Not in the value

②Invested Capital at Year 15, Today

Not in the value

③Net Debt Today

Not in the value

Market value

Market Cap3.95B USD

Today's price times the shares.

Value vs market

Margin of Safety-7.6%

1 minus the market cap as a share of the value.

The Rates and the Capital the Values Read

The WACC and the cost of equity each value is discounted at, the book value and the net debt each starts from, and the seven quality metrics, from the same run.

WACC: 5.65%
weighted average cost of capital: the yearly return the shareholders and the lenders together require, weighted by what each puts in; the rate that brings the firm's future cash to today.
Cost of Equity =Risk-Free Rate 4.50%+Beta 1.33×Market Risk Premium 6.00%= 12.48%

The yearly return the shareholders require for the risk they carry; it is the rate that brings their future cash to today.

Tax Rate for WACC =Tax Provision 46.05M USDPretax Income 146.15M USD= 31.51%

The tax the interest saves.

Interest Expense =EBIT 381.38M USD−Pretax Income 146.15M USD= 235.23M USD

The interest the company paid: EBIT is the profit before tax plus the interest.

Cost of Debt =Interest Expense 235.23M USDTotal Debt 7.62B USD×(1 − Tax Rate for WACC 31.51%)= 2.11%

What the lenders are paid a year after the tax the interest saves.

Debt Weight =Total Debt 7.62B USDMarket Cap + Total Debt 3.95B USD + 7.62B USD= 65.86%

The part of the capital the lenders put in, at market value.

WACC =Equity Weight 34.14%×Cost of Equity 12.48%+Debt Weight 65.86%×Cost of Debt 2.11%= 5.65%

Weighted average cost of capital: the yearly return the shareholders and the lenders together require, weighted by what each puts in; the rate that brings the firm's future cash to today.

Book value and net debt today
Both from the balance sheet of the newest quarter, 2026-06-30.

Total Assets 21.27B USD − Total Liabilities 17.59B USD = Book Value Today 3.67B USD

Total Debt 7.62B USD − Cash and Short-Term Investments 2.66B USD = Net Debt Today 4.96B USD

The book value is what Profit starts from and what stands when a projection is not made; the book value plus the net debt is what FCFF starts from; the net debt comes off Greenwald's and FCFF's values before the shareholders.

Quality metrics
Read beside the value, never a condition for it: every company is valued, and a filter in the list is the reader's choice.
MetricFrom
Share dilutionShares Today ÷ Shares Two Years Back − 1-11.5%at most 5%passes111,566,970 / 126,090,353
Accrual quality(Operating Cash Flow − Net Income) ÷ Total Assets5.4%at least -10.0%passes(1.25B USD − 100.10M USD) ÷ 21.27B USD
Price to bookMarket Cap ÷ Book Value Today1.08×at most 3×passes3.95B USD ÷ 3.67B USD
Operating marginOperating Income ÷ Revenue3.9%above 10.0%does not pass553.55M USD ÷ 14.25B USD
Revenue growthRevenue ÷ Revenue a Year Before − 121.3%above 10.0%passes14.25B USD / 11.75B USD
Net cash(Cash − Total Debt) ÷ Market Cap-166.0%above -30%does not pass(1.07B USD − 7.62B USD) ÷ 3.95B USD
Operating efficiencyOperating Income ÷ Gross Profit27.4%above 25.0%passes553.55M USD ÷ 2.02B USD

Market Data

The provider's ratios and the analysts' consensus beside the argument; none of them enters a value.

Market data
The data provider's own ratios and the analysts' consensus, read beside the valuation, never in it.

Share price

35 USD

Enterprise value

9.25B USD

market cap plus net debt

EV / EBITDA

15.40×

Price / book

1.12×

the provider's book

Price / earnings

—

Return on equity

-10.4%

the provider's, not the engine's

Profit margin

-2.6%

Revenue growth

14.4%

Analyst target, mean

52 USD

Analysts

16

opinions in the consensus

Financial Statements

The income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow the screener holds, year by year, in USD.

Financial statements, year by year
The annual lines the screener holds today, in USD at each period's rate; the figures this valuation read are in its calculation above.
USD2022202320242025
Income statement

Revenue

9.66B10.44B11.75B14.25B

Gross profit

1.66B1.87B2.12B2.02B

Operating income

650.65M837.84M915.91M553.55M

EBITDA

operating income before depreciation and amortisation

588.59M868.87M1.27B1.18B

Pretax income

79.08M323.32M545.54M146.15M

Net income

58.06M235.23M395.39M100.10M

Normalized income

net income without one-off items, as the data provider prints it; Profit's line when printed

486.53M571.64M634.16M271.77M

R&D

————
Balance sheet, year end

Total assets

14.20B14.63B19.79B20.38B

Total liabilities

10.38B10.51B15.41B16.26B

Shareholders' equity

the equity the parent's shareholders own, as printed, without minority interest; the book value the values read is total assets less total liabilities, in Book Value and Net Debt above

3.82B4.12B4.38B4.12B

Total debt

3.78B3.82B6.40B6.90B

Cash and equivalents

338.34M281.28M1.20B627.63M

Net PP&E

fixed assets after depreciation

8.74B9.59B12.09B13.14B

Working capital

current assets less current liabilities

-1.45B-1.76B-2.39B-3.33B
Cash flow

Operating cash flow

1.42B1.05B1.47B1.25B

Capital expenditure

paid out, so below zero

-1.67B-1.50B-1.28B-1.59B

Depreciation and amortisation

415.41M451.45M583.58M795.79M

Free cash flow

operating cash flow plus capital expenditure

-253.25M-444.44M183.18M-339.34M