Alcoa Corporation AA

Basic Materials · Aluminum · valued as of 2026-11-02 · statements 2025-12-31

Average Intrinsic Value
$5.20B
Market Cap
$11.11B
Margin of Safety
-113.6%
Intrinsic / Market Ratio
0.47

How Each Value Is Built

The screener's three formulas on the reported figures. Each card reads the same way: the value as a sum of numbered terms, each term's calculation opened under it, from the reported figures to the value. The list ranks companies by their plain average over the market cap.

EPV + Growth

715.45M USD

what the normal year's earnings are worth for ever, plus growth that pays

Profit

7.44B USD

15 years of cash the shareholders can take out, and the equity left at year 15

FCFF

7.44B USD

15 years of cash for shareholders and lenders, less what is owed

Intrinsic Value

5.20B USD

the plain average of the three, uncapped, as the screener averages them

Intrinsic Value

5.20B USD

from the sum above

Market Cap

11.11B USD

today's price times the shares

Intrinsic Value ÷ Market Cap

0.47×

the ratio the screener ranks by; Margin of Safety -113.6% (1 − Market Cap ÷ Intrinsic Value)

Each card below builds one of the three values from the reported years.

Earnings power value plus growth: 715.45M USD
What the normal year's operating profit after tax is worth if it lasts for ever, plus what the new investment adds beyond its cost, less the net debt that comes before the shareholders (or plus the net cash).
①EPV (earnings power value)1.59B USD
−②Net Debt Today873.87M USD
+③Growth Value0 USD
=Value715.45M USD

EPV of the Operations (NOPAT over WACC)

1.59B USD

Net debt today

-873.87M USD

Growth Value

0 USD

Value

715.45M USD

①EPV (earnings power value)

1.59B USD

②Net Debt Today

873.87M USD

③Growth Value

0 USD

Market value

Market Cap11.11B USD

Today's price times the shares.

Value vs market

Margin of Safety-1453.0%

1 minus the market cap as a share of the value.

Profit value: today's value of the shareholders' equity, from the cash it can pay them (FCFE): 7.44B USD
Fifteen years of free cash flow to equity (FCFE), each brought to today at the cost of equity, plus the equity at year 15 brought to today.

The projection was not made (a profit at or below zero in the latest three years), so the value is the book value today, 7.44B USD, as the screener leaves it.

①Present Value of the 15 Years of FCFE

Not in the value

②Equity at Year 15, Today

Not in the value

Market value

Market Cap11.11B USD

Today's price times the shares.

Value vs market

Margin of Safety-49.3%

1 minus the market cap as a share of the value.

FCFF value: today's value of the shareholders' equity, from the cash the firm can pay its shareholders and lenders (FCFF): 7.44B USD
Fifteen years of free cash flow to the firm (FCFF), each brought to today at the WACC, plus the invested capital at year 15 brought to today, less the net debt today (or plus the net cash).

The projection was not made (a change in working capital above half the operating profit in the latest three years), so the value is the book value today, 7.44B USD, as the screener leaves it.

①Present Value of the 15 Years of FCFF

Not in the value

②Invested Capital at Year 15, Today

Not in the value

③Net Debt Today

Not in the value

Market value

Market Cap11.11B USD

Today's price times the shares.

Value vs market

Margin of Safety-49.3%

1 minus the market cap as a share of the value.

The Rates and the Capital the Values Read

The WACC and the cost of equity each value is discounted at, the book value and the net debt each starts from, and the seven quality metrics, from the same run.

WACC: 12.79%
weighted average cost of capital: the yearly return the shareholders and the lenders together require, weighted by what each puts in; the rate that brings the firm's future cash to today.
Cost of Equity =Risk-Free Rate 4.50%+Beta 1.63×Market Risk Premium 6.00%= 14.29%

The yearly return the shareholders require for the risk they carry; it is the rate that brings their future cash to today.

Tax Rate for WACC 25.00% (default): the statements print a tax provision of -55.05M USD on a pretax income of 1.07B USD, which gives no rate between 0 and the profit before tax, so the 25% default stands for the tax the interest saves.

Interest Expense =EBIT 1.22B USD−Pretax Income 1.07B USD= 158.16M USD

The interest the company paid: EBIT is the profit before tax plus the interest.

Cost of Debt =Interest Expense 158.16M USDTotal Debt 2.23B USD×(1 − Tax Rate for WACC 25.00%)= 5.33%

What the lenders are paid a year after the tax the interest saves.

Debt Weight =Total Debt 2.23B USDMarket Cap + Total Debt 11.11B USD + 2.23B USD= 16.70%

The part of the capital the lenders put in, at market value.

WACC =Equity Weight 83.30%×Cost of Equity 14.29%+Debt Weight 16.70%×Cost of Debt 5.33%= 12.79%

Weighted average cost of capital: the yearly return the shareholders and the lenders together require, weighted by what each puts in; the rate that brings the firm's future cash to today.

Book value and net debt today
Both from the balance sheet of the newest quarter, 2026-06-30.

Total Assets 16.87B USD − Total Liabilities 9.43B USD = Book Value Today 7.44B USD

Total Debt 2.23B USD − Cash and Short-Term Investments 1.35B USD = Net Debt Today 873.87M USD

The book value is what Profit starts from and what stands when a projection is not made; the book value plus the net debt is what FCFF starts from; the net debt comes off Greenwald's and FCFF's values before the shareholders.

Quality metrics
Read beside the value, never a condition for it: every company is valued, and a filter in the list is the reader's choice.
MetricFrom
Share dilutionShares Today ÷ Shares Two Years Back − 147.9%at most 5%does not pass263,891,991 / 178,472,464
Accrual quality(Operating Cash Flow − Net Income) ÷ Total Assets0.2%at least -10.0%passes(1.19B USD − 1.16B USD) ÷ 16.87B USD
Price to bookMarket Cap ÷ Book Value Today1.49×at most 3×passes11.11B USD ÷ 7.44B USD
Operating marginOperating Income ÷ Revenue5.9%above 10.0%does not pass758.76M USD ÷ 12.84B USD
Revenue growthRevenue ÷ Revenue a Year Before − 17.9%above 10.0%does not pass12.84B USD / 11.91B USD
Net cash(Cash − Total Debt) ÷ Market Cap-7.9%above -30%passes(1.35B USD − 2.23B USD) ÷ 11.11B USD
Operating efficiencyOperating Income ÷ Gross Profit34.9%above 25.0%passes758.76M USD ÷ 2.18B USD

Market Data

The provider's ratios and the analysts' consensus beside the argument; none of them enters a value.

Market data
The data provider's own ratios and the analysts' consensus, read beside the valuation, never in it.

Share price

42 USD

Enterprise value

12.05B USD

market cap plus net debt

EV / EBITDA

5.21×

Price / book

1.51×

the provider's book

Price / earnings

8.73×

Return on equity

18.2%

the provider's, not the engine's

Profit margin

9.4%

Revenue growth

31.4%

Analyst target, mean

63 USD

Analysts

12

opinions in the consensus

Financial Statements

The income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow the screener holds, year by year, in USD.

Financial statements, year by year
The annual lines the screener holds today, in USD at each period's rate; the figures this valuation read are in its calculation above.
USD2022202320242025
Income statement

Revenue

12.46B10.56B11.91B12.84B

Gross profit

2.24B738.74M1.85B2.18B

Operating income

1.33B-227.23M828.83M758.76M

EBITDA

operating income before depreciation and amortisation

1.43B155.15M1.09B1.85B

Pretax income

702.70M-584.58M289.29M1.07B

Net income

-123.12M-651.65M60.06M1.16B

Normalized income

net income without one-off items, as the data provider prints it; Profit's line when printed

261.20M-595.50M374.00M787.28M

R&D

32.03M39.04M57.06M24.02M
Balance sheet, year end

Total assets

14.77B14.17B14.08B16.15B

Total liabilities

8.18B8.32B8.92B9.94B

Shareholders' equity

the equity the parent's shareholders own, as printed, without minority interest; the book value the values read is total assets less total liabilities, in Book Value and Net Debt above

5.08B4.26B5.16B6.12B

Total debt

1.87B1.97B2.82B2.71B

Cash and equivalents

1.36B944.94M1.14B1.60B

Net PP&E

fixed assets after depreciation

6.50B6.79B6.40B6.71B

Working capital

current assets less current liabilities

2.25B1.38B1.52B1.67B
Cash flow

Operating cash flow

822.82M91.09M622.62M1.19B

Capital expenditure

paid out, so below zero

-480.48M-531.53M-580.58M-618.62M

Depreciation and amortisation

617.62M632.63M642.64M623.62M

Free cash flow

operating cash flow plus capital expenditure

342.34M-440.44M42.04M567.57M