Comcast Corporation

Revenue comes from millions of subscribers and advertisers; the reports name no single large customer. Profit is concentrated in Residential Connectivity & Platforms, which leads segment Adjusted EBITDA at "26,653" (N664). The concentration that matters is in suppliers and countries.

Costs are mostly fixed: a network, content commitments and depreciation, set against 2025 revenue of "123,707,000,000" (F153). That gives high operating leverage. Revenue was flat in 2025 while operating income fell (N566, N567).

The subscription connectivity business has been steady, but advertising, studios and parks swing with shocks. Recent revenue has been flat to falling.

Fiber and 5G fixed wireless are replacing cable broadband in the footprint, and linear TV is in structural decline.

The projections run at 17.4% on equity against a cost of equity of 7.9%, and at 9.9% on capital against a cost of capital of 5.9%. Returns are above the cost of capital, but on capital the gap is narrow. The 2025 net income attributable to Comcast of "19,998,000,000" (F168), against equity of "96,903,000,000" (F075), is inflated by the Hulu gain (N563), so it overstates the return. The returns of each year from 2020 to 2025 stand in Returns, Payouts and Debt.

No exclusive licence protects the network; the protection rests on scale and bundling. Several contracts and rules come up for review on known dates.

2025 earnings are inflated by one-offs: investment and other income was "9,503,000,000" (F163), mainly the Hulu gain (N563, N704). Cash flow was flattered by low cash taxes. Operating cash flow of "33,643,000,000" (F255) is above net income of "19,660,000,000" (F243), helped by depreciation and the tax refund.

The reports do not split maintenance from growth spending. In 2025, capital expenditures of "11,750,000,000" (F257) plus intangibles of "2,658,000,000" (F258) stayed below depreciation and amortization of "16,210,000,000" (F245). That D&A includes acquisition amortization and impairments (N568, N569), so it overstates replacement need.

The largest claims off the balance sheet are multiyear sports and content commitments. Several smaller debt-like items sit beside them.

At 30 September 2026, debt was "3,560,000,000" current plus "83,806,000,000" noncurrent (F098, F100), down from "5,958,000,000" and "92,979,000,000" at year end 2025 (F059, F062). Cash was "7,596,000,000" (F081), and leverage is 2.43x. The debt is long-dated, mostly fixed-rate and low-coupon (N640), so refinancing risk is low.

The non-operating assets are modest next to the equity: investments of "7,952,000,000" at year end 2025 (F047), mainly Atairos (N710), plus a few smaller items.

Large and steady cash returns, mixed results on acquisitions. In 2025 dividends were "4,894,000,000" and buybacks "7,155,000,000" (F272, F271). The buyback is now suspended ahead of the spin-off (N855), and the dividend is held flat (N858).

Minority protection is weak. Class B shares hold a fixed, non-dilutable third of the votes at 15 votes each, all owned by Brian L. Roberts (N731, N732, N051). They carry a veto over mergers and asset sales (N558).

Brian L. Roberts is Chairman and Co-CEO (N557). The President became Co-CEO beside him (N761). After the spin-off, news reports have Mike Cavanagh leading NBCUniversal (R003) and former CFO Michael Angelakis returning to lead the remaining Comcast (R004).

There is no rate regulation or allowed return in the core business. Broadband is a Title I information service that the FCC cannot rate-regulate (N547). The regulators and their rules are listed below; there is no tariff review date.

Mostly US, with material UK, European and China exposure. US tax changes currently help.

The business runs on a hybrid fiber-coaxial network being upgraded to DOCSIS 4.0, with network virtualisation (N524). Multigigabit speeds already reach part of customers over DOCSIS 3.1 (N523). Physical assets are described as in good condition (N333).

The technology moat is weak. Switching costs are not holding: domestic broadband customers fell to "31,255" from "31,842" (N591), and "144,000" residential subscribers were lost in Q3 2026 (R008). What remains is scale: the network passes "64,983" thousand homes and businesses (N595), and adding customers on it costs little.

The asset base is roughly half depreciated (N719). The September 2026 balance sheet line carries accumulated depreciation of "$ 62,721" (F087). Management calls the assets generally in good operating condition (N333). The reports do not disclose any deferred maintenance.

At 93.79B USD, the market pays 0.50x of the earnings power value. In other words, it prices a lasting decline: broadband losses, falling revenue and restructuring. The dividend yield is 5.2%, and the expected return a year from buying is 14.2%.

The gap may persist if the core keeps shrinking faster than costs. FCFF grows at only 0.6%, and control blocks any outside catalyst.

Each of the facts below, if observed, would show that the earnings power behind the value is not holding.